- Democrats have lost non-college educated, white voters because they are seen as the party of “elites,” experts say.
- Ex-Pennsylvania Rep. Rick Fetterman is an outlier candidate, a tattooed biker dude who endorsed Bernie Sanders for president.
- Polls show Ryan with a few percentage points ahead of Vance, but he has raised more money and support from President Trump and GOP-friendly groups.
One Senate candidate is a scathing Twitter troll who rarely wears anything more formal than a hoodie and baggy shorts. The other bemoans the loss of manufacturing jobs, China’s economic threat, and the blows to America’s working class.
They’re both middle-aged white men, both Democrats up against celebrity-candidate Republicans, and both could be the key to regaining control of one chamber of Congress for a party that has branded itself as the party of diversity and has been shifting to the left.
The state of Pennsylvania. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is running for a U.S. Senate seat against Mehmet “Dr.” Oz, and he appears to be positioned to give Democrats a pickup in the 50-50 Senate. In redder-tinged Ohio, Democrat Tim Ryan faces a tougher battle, but polls show him neck and neck with Republican opponent J.D. Vance, a former venture capitalist and author of “Hillbilly Elegy.”
Both men are engaging in some counter-programming while campaigning in states that have become less friendly to Democrats in recent years. Even as the Democratic Party is losing ground among non-college educated, white voters, Fetterman and Ryan are making a direct appeal to working-class voters, portraying their GOP opponents as elitists who don’t understand post-industrial America’s struggles.
“Those with a high school education or less are culturally conservative, support the Second Amendment, and are sceptical of climate change legislation.” “They’ve shifted away from the Democratic Party,” says G. Terry Madonna, senior fellow in residence at Millersville University of Pennsylvania and a state pollster.
But, according to Madonna, former Braddock, Pennsylvania mayor Fetterman, whose coal country roots give him some credibility among that voter group, “has worked hard to connect with working men and women, with working class voters.”
Ryan, now a congressman, is making a similar appeal in Ohio, though his odds are higher because Ohio, a once-swing state, has steadily shifted toward Republicans over the last two decades. However, Ryan is hoping to make enough inroads with the working-class vote to join the state’s only statewide-elected Democrat, Sen. Sherrod Brown, in the Senate by focusing heavily on trade, jobs, and manufacturing investment.
Democrats have lost non-college educated, white voters because they “see them as the party of elites,” focusing on issues such as LGBTQ rights, abortion, and other social and cultural issues “that are not central to the economic declines these communities are facing,” according to Lisa Pruitt, a law professor at UC Davis who has written extensively about the working class. “It’s really hurt them.”
Democrats have capitalised on the country’s shift toward majority-minority status, portraying themselves as the voice of inclusion, representing Black and brown communities as well as new immigrants. While this may pay off electorally as demographics shift, experts say pockets of white, working-class voters in key states are helping Republicans maintain power.
Former President Donald Trump, for example, received 68 percent of the white, non-college educated vote in 2016, with similarly lopsided majorities in key states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, removing a small number of those voters was crucial for President Joe Biden in 2020, when the Democrat returned Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to the blue side of the electoral ledger.
Biden received 34% of the white working-class vote in Pennsylvania, compared to 32% for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the Keystone State in 2016. In Wisconsin, Biden received 41% of the white working-class vote, compared to 34% for Clinton in 2016.
That’s hardly a groundswell, but it demonstrates how small shifts in the vote can mean the difference between a win and a loss, according to experts.
“Democrats can only make so much of an inroad with the white working-class vote.” According to Alan Abramowitz, an Emory University political science professor who studies political behaviour, “the majority of white, working-class voters are not persuadable and are pretty firmly in the Republican camp.”
“However, if you have the right kind of candidate and the right situation, there is still a segment of the white working class vote that is movable.” Candidates like Ryan and Fetterman, I believe, have a better chance of attracting those voters.”
Fetterman is an outlier candidate, a tattooed “huge biker dude” who endorsed Bernie Sanders for president and holds a master’s degree from Harvard. Fetterman has also abandoned his support for a moratorium on fracking, a method of extracting oil and gas that alarms environmentalists while creating jobs in Pennsylvania.
Oz has celebrity, a medical degree, and the support of former President Donald Trump, which could help mobilise a Republican base that is already statistically more likely to vote in midterm elections.
Polls show Fetterman leading Oz by 4-9 percentage points, but political analysts say Fetterman’s health could derail his campaign. Fetterman had a stroke in May and revealed only a few weeks later that he “almost died” and had not been taking his health as seriously as he should have. He has not actively campaigned in person since his illness, though he told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently that he was confident he would be able to “run fully” for the seat.
That hasn’t stopped Fetterman from raising large sums of money (more than $11 million in the second quarter of the year, compared to Oz’s $3.8 million) and teasing his fall opponent with tweets depicting Oz in his opulent home or kissing his Hollywood Walk of Fame star.
Oz has posted an ad of himself jogging, a not-so-subtle reference to the men’s differing health conditions, and mocks Fetterman for being away from the campaign trail.
“I’m curious as to why you have to fill up your tank so frequently when you’re not out on the campaign trail meeting with Pennsylvanians,” Oz tweeted after Fetterman mentioned high gas prices.
“You’re literally from Jersey, dude.” “I bet you don’t even know how to pump your own gas,” Fetterman retorted, referring to Oz’s recent residency in New Jersey, the country’s only state where drivers are not permitted to pump their own gas.
Oz’s campaign slammed Fetterman’s portrayal of the TV doctor as elitist. “Dr. Mehmet Oz, unlike John Fetterman, has spent the summer crisscrossing the commonwealth and listening to Pennsylvanians who are dealing with the effects of inflation,” Oz spokeswoman Brittany Yanick said in an email. “Working-class voters will vote heavily against Fetterman because he supports banning fracking and raising taxes.”
Meanwhile, Ryan has emphasised his own roots in the once-thriving steel town of Youngstown, Ohio. His most recent ad mentions that he voted with Trump on trade and opposed a trade agreement supported by former President Barack Obama.
Ryan says in the ad, “I don’t answer to any political party.” “I answer to the people I grew up with, as well as families like yours across Ohio.”
Vance has also received Trump’s support and bills himself as a “conservative outsider” who will assist Ohioans who have felt left behind by their current leaders. Vance also supports the abolition of abortion and tax policies that “reward marriage and family.”
On paper, Vance should be a lock; the party out of power loses seats in midterm elections, and Republicans dominate Ohio politics, controlling both chambers of the state legislature as well as almost every statewide office.
And, according to Ohio-based GOP consultant Mark Weaver, Vance has his own working-class credentials. “He has a powerful story to tell,” says Vance, “and I imagine he’ll lean into his roots, growing up in Appalachia and being a Marine.” Vance also has systemic advantages, such as a strong Republican ground game in Ohio and Biden’s low approval ratings in Ohio.
Despite this, polls show Ryan with a few percentage points ahead of Vance. Ryan also announced that he had raised $9.1 million in the second quarter of the year, a state record. Meanwhile, Vance reported raising more than $2.3 million during that time period.
According to Dante Atkins, a Democratic strategist, Democrats are not in a position to reclaim working-class white voters as a group. “What Democrats need to do is figure out how to stop the erosion and win back some ground,” Atkins adds.
“If you’re John Fetterman and you can reduce the margin (of GOP dominance) in coal country by 50,000-80,000 votes, you can offset” the drop in Democratic turnout that occurs frequently in midterm elections, according to Atkins. “Ultimately, it’s a numbers game.” Small shifts in numbers this fall will determine who controls the Senate.
[embedpost slug=”/san-francisco-declares-state-of-emergency-as-virus-cases-rise/”]
