President Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement that military operations will be launched shortly to expand the safe zones already in place along Turkey’s southern borders has heightened the stakes in his dispute with NATO allies over Finland and Sweden’s membership.

Analysts believe Erdogan’s surprising declaration on Monday reflects his assumption that the West would not oppose such operations at a time when the Nordic nations’ bid to join NATO need Ankara’s cooperation.

Turkey accuses Sweden and Finland of harbouring members of the violent Kurdistan Workers Party, which is banned in Turkey (PKK). The Nordic states’ bid for membership in NATO must be approved by all 30 NATO countries. On Tuesday, the US expressed confidence that Sweden and Finland would be able to overcome Turkey’s reservations.

According to analysts, Erdogan’s declaration was made to reinforce Turkish nationalist support for his two-decade rule as he prepares for challenging elections next year. In the past, cross-border military actions have bolstered his poll ratings.

Since 2016, Turkey has launched three incursions into northern Syria, capturing hundreds of kilometres of land and advancing 30 kilometres (20 miles) deep into the nation in operations aimed mostly at the US-backed Syrian Kurdish YPG militia.

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