Li Shangfu

• China’s new defense minister is a veteran of the PLA.
• He was identified in sanctions imposed by the US State Department in September 2018.
• Many believe Li’s background as a technocrat.

General Li Shangfu, China‘s new defense minister, is a veteran of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) modernization campaign, which prompted the US to penalize him for acquiring weaponry from Russia.

Although his new position inside the Chinese system is mostly diplomatic and ceremonial, regional diplomats believe Li’s appointment is being closely observed given his experience.

His tenure begins as Washington works to repair military engagement and communications that deteriorated after Beijing responded furiously to then-U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s August visit to Taiwan.

Many believe Li’s background as a technocrat – he is an aerospace engineer who worked on China’s satellite program – will allow him to play a vital role in fulfilling President Xi Jinping‘s interim ambitions for the PLA.

“The operational and technological background of the next Chinese defense minister is especially pertinent given that the PLA aims to become a world-class military by 2049,” said James Char, a security scholar at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

In 2016, Li was named deputy commander of the PLA’s then-new Strategic Support Force – an elite body tasked with accelerating the development of China’s space and cyber warfare capabilities.

He was then appointed chairman of the Central Military Commission’s (CMC) Equipment Development Department, China’s leading defense body led by President Xi Jinping.

RUSSIAN PURCHASES

As a director, he was identified in sanctions imposed by the US State Department in September 2018 over the purchase of ten Su-35 combat aircraft and equipment associated with Russia’s largest arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, in 2017.

Some security experts argue that the penalties, while not a deal-breaker for future meetings, create a possible complexity and may lend leverage to China’s military leadership.

When asked about Li’s expected elevation last week, Pentagon spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Marty Meiners said the US military could not comment on media stories concerning China’s leadership changes, but that they had been explicit in their desire to maintain connections with the PLA.

Priority for the U.S

“Open lines of communication can help us manage risk, avoid miscalculation, and responsibly manage competition,” Meiners said.

According to Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, China is likely to use the dynamic for diplomatic gain, either by portraying the sanctions as insignificant if they are ignored or by implying that it is Washington, not Beijing, that is unwilling to engage.

“Engagement has always been a priority for the U.S., and China sees it as a concession,” Mastro said.

Li’s tenure as a member of the Central Military Commission has highlighted his ties to Xi, who has tightened his influence on the military.

Several academics believe Li has tight ties to Zhang Youxia, a key military buddy of Xi who Li replaced as department director.

During the Communist Party’s Congress in October, Zhang was appointed to first vice-chairman of the CMC, with Li joining him on the commission’s governing seven-person group.

As defense minister, Li is also likely to be involved in Asian military ties, attending events such as Asian defense leaders meetings and the informal Shangri-La Dialogue on security in Singapore.

“I think he has been elevated to this position because he’s delivered for Xi Jinping in key areas of modernization,” said Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill, an adjunct fellow with Hawaii’s Pacific Forum think-tank.

“This is someone who will have to hold their own in front of an international audience.”

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