Geographically, the city of Mariupol occupies only a tiny area on the map but it now stands obstinately in the way of Russian forces who have burst out of the Crimean peninsula.
They are pushing north-east to try to link up with their comrades and Ukrainian-separatist allies in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
General Sir Richard Barrons – former commander of UK Joint Forces Command – says capturing Mariupol is vital to Russia’s war effort.
“When the Russians feel they have successfully concluded that battle, they will have completed a land bridge from Russia to Crimea and they will see this as a major strategic success.”
If Mariupol was seized, Russia would also end up with full control of more than 80% of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline – cutting-off its maritime trade and further isolating it from the world.
By holding out against advancing forces for the past three weeks, the defending Ukrainians have managed to preoccupy a large number of Russian troops. But that failure by Russia to secure a rapid capture of the city, has prompted Russian commanders to resort to a 21st Century version of mediaeval siege tactics.
They have pummelled Mariupol with artillery, rockets and missiles – damaging or destroying over 90% of the city. They have also cut off access to electricity, heating, fresh water, food and medical supplies – creating a man-made humanitarian catastrophe which Moscow now blames on Ukraine for refusing to surrender by an 05:00 deadline on Monday. A Ukrainian MP has accused Russia of “trying to starve Mariupol into surrender”.
Ukraine has vowed to defend the city down to the last soldier. It may well come to that. Russian troops are slowly pushing into the centre and, in the absence of any kind of workable peace deal, Russia is now likely to intensify its bombardment – drawing little if any distinction between its armed defenders and the beleaguered civilian population which still numbers over 200,000.
If, and when, Russia takes full control of Mariupol this will free up close to 6,000 of its troops – organised into 1,000-strong battalion tactical groups – to then go and reinforce other Russian fronts around Ukraine.
