Professor Neil MacFarlane, an expert on the former Soviet territory, believes that the eastern part of Crimea and the city of Mariupol in the country’s southeast are the “key points” in Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. He stated that a lack of soldiers has prevented the Russians from carrying out “further offensives” elsewhere in the country, implying the possibility of a peace treaty between the two countries.
Prof. MacFarlane stated that, while both parties appear to be making progress in their conversations, the territorial problem of eastern Ukraine remains unresolved.
Putin has demanded that Ukraine recognise Russia’s rule over the Donbass and Crimean areas.
While it appears that Putin will back down on his demand for Ukraine’s “denazification” and “demilitarisation,” he will not back down on the subject of eastern territory.
The Financial Times reported on Monday evening that Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will discuss the subject at a later date.
“The essential element becomes the territorial problem regarding that territory in the east and in the south,” Prof MacFarlane added.
“I don’t see Putin relinquishing Crimea.” After all, Putin recently spent $15 billion on a bridge between Russia and Crimea.
“The Russians attempted to push into Odessa but failed, and they now face a personnel shortfall.”
“If they’re going to focus on eastern Ukraine, they can’t launch any further offensives.” So, I suppose this is why Putin stated that their concentration is now shifting to the east.”
He went on to say that the city of Mariupol would be crucial to Putin’s objectives, and that peace between the nations is improbable if Russia cannot claim that territory.
“He needs Mariupol because it is a critical location in the coastal passage from Crimea into Russia,” he explained.
According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, “time is running short for people in Mariupol.”
They condemned Russian intervention and stated that the city has now “gone for weeks with no humanitarian help.”
