Residents in the UAE planning their initial overseas trips in 2024 are advised to delay flight bookings until mid-January when airfares are anticipated to witness significant declines. This applies particularly to high-traffic routes such as those to the UK, major European cities, and the Philippines.
“There are fare drops even on longer haul routes such as the US. Even those travelers planning last-minute bookings can make use of the rate dips,” industry sources suggest.
The expected rate reductions on long-haul routes from the UAE could reach as much as “50-60 per cent, depending, of course, on the routes, dates, etc.,” notes Malou Prado, CEO of Dubai-based MPQ Travel and Tourism.
The demand for flights into Dubai has been exceptional, particularly from large tour groups, driving airfares to peak levels. However, by the second and third week of January, long-haul routes from the UAE are projected to experience substantial fare reductions following peak winter travel demand.
On Philippines-UAE routes, the current rate highs are anticipated to continue into February due to visiting friends and relatives (VFR) traffic, with many UAE-based Filipinos returning after an extended winter break.
Some highlighted rate reductions include:
- Economy Class fares from London Heathrow Airport to Dubai International dropping from Dh5,135 to Dh2,410 (one-way) between January 15 and 29.
- Return Economy class rates from New York to Dubai falling to Dh3,519 compared to Dh6,487 in late December.
- San Francisco to Dubai at Dh5,943 (vs. Dh7,600 in December), and flights from Boston at Dh4,276.
- Fares to European destinations averaging from Dh2,722 (Paris) to Dh3,005 (Amsterdam).
- Manila to Dubai airfares expected to fall to Dh2,000 by end January, compared to the highs of Dh5,000 in Q4-23.
Currently, UAE’s in- and outbound ticket rates are well over 25-50 per cent higher than levels recorded in September and the first half of October.
The low fare phase is projected to last from January 15 to around March 10, providing a respite from high airfares as travel demand from families with school-going children and business travel decreases during this time.
“We are seeing a lot of demand originating from Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean countries, and some European travelers who have moved their holidays to mid-January to early March to take advantage of cheaper fares and lower hotel rates in the UAE,” said Shanavaz Khan, founder of Trips Away.
Carlo Olejniczak, Vice-President and Managing Director for Booking.com in Europe, Middle East and Africa, highlights that travel will remain a top priority for residents in the UAE and elsewhere in the first quarter of 2024. The International Air Travel Association (IATA) projects that around 4.7 billion people will travel in 2024, surpassing the pre-pandemic level of 4.5 billion recorded in 2019.
