- Poland’s general election results favor opposition parties over the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party.
- PiS secured 35.38% of the vote, with the Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk at 30.7%.
- Donald Tusk is likely to form a broad coalition, ending PiS’s eight-year rule.
In Poland’s general election, opposition parties have obtained enough votes to unseat the ruling right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, according to confirmed results.
PiS emerged as the winner with 35.38% of the vote, edging out Donald Tusk’s centrist opposition Civic Coalition, which secured 30.7%.
However, it is now highly likely that Mr. Tusk will be able to establish a broad coalition, putting an end to eight years of PiS leadership under Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
The final count, released by the National Election Commission on Tuesday, showed that the winning party would have the opportunity to form a government, but Mr. Kaczynski would fall significantly short of the 231 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.
Mr. Tusk could potentially gather 248 seats in the 460-seat Sejm if he forms a government in collaboration with the center-right Third Way and New Left parties.
The Third Way party was a significant winner in the election, garnering 14.4% of the vote. PiS lost 41 seats since the previous election, and even if it formed a coalition with the far-right Confederation party, it would still be 19 seats short of the required number.
The opposition had previously warned the Polish electorate that this was their “last chance” to preserve democracy. The election commission reported a turnout of 74.38%, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989.
“Poland won, democracy has won,” Mr. Tusk, 66, told a large crowd of jubilant supporters in Warsaw.
Poland’s capital, Warsaw, witnessed an impressive voter turnout of 84.92% among its 1.35 million registered voters, a testament to the remarkable power of civil society.
The country’s stock market experienced a substantial surge of over 6%, and its currency, the Zloty, also strengthened in anticipation of a forthcoming change in government.
After the exit poll results were announced on Sunday night, PiS leader Mr. Kaczynski cautioned voters that the success of his party might not necessarily translate into another term in power.
International observers, evaluating the election, pointed out that while parties had the freedom to campaign, PiS enjoyed a “clear advantage” due to biased state media coverage and the alleged misuse of public funds.
State TV’s election night coverage notably broadcast Mr. Kaczynski’s address to supporters in full, while providing limited coverage of his main rival.
Notably, despite polls closing at 21:00 local time on Sunday, long lines of voters persisted well into the night in cities like Warsaw and Krakow, even extending into the early hours in Wroclaw.
The demographics of voters showed that the proportion of 18-29-year-olds exceeded that of individuals aged over 60.
The Law and Justice party assumed power in 2015 and focused on promoting Catholic family values, increasing the minimum wage, raising child support, and pensioner payments.
It also implemented a near-total abortion ban in 2021 and faced accusations of politicizing the judiciary by appointing judges sympathetic to the ruling party.
In contrast, Mr. Tusk has vowed to improve relations with the EU and unlock €36 billion in EU Covid pandemic recovery funds, which had been frozen due to conflicts over PiS judicial reforms.
His coalition also expressed intentions to liberalize abortion laws.
Poland has been a steadfast supporter of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in the preceding year, hosting one million refugees.
Although PiS leaders exhibited signs of wavering in the lead-up to the election, this was seen as an effort to court far-right voters. Regardless of the leader, the next government is expected to continue Poland’s support for Ukraine.
The formation of a new government in Poland may be delayed until December, as PiS ally President Andrzej Duda asserted that the winning party traditionally gets the first opportunity to form a coalition.
If the PiS candidate nominated by the president fails to secure a vote of confidence in parliament, the Sejm will appoint an alternative candidate to attempt to form a coalition and gain a vote of confidence.
Mr. Tusk and his allies could potentially initiate discussions as early as this week, albeit they might have to wait for several weeks to gain the opportunity to form a coalition.
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