Despite Kyiv’s forces recapturing the Kharkiv region and using significant US artillery supply, a senior Pentagon official cautioned Thursday that the Ukraine war could drag on for a long time.
Analysts who claim that Russian forces are stretched to capacity and would be unable to advance in weeks should be warned, according to the source.
“It’s tough to predict where this will go over time,” said the official, who requested anonymity.
In comparison to Russian forces, the official commended Ukrainian soldiers for their command and control, cohesion, and spirit, calling it “nothing short of historic.”
The Russians, however, have a numerical advantage and a “substantial amount” of fighting capacity in reserve, according to the official, and are maintaining their ground over a broad front stretching from the Donbass south and west to Mykolaiv.
“All of this, along with the fact that we’re talking about an area of Ukraine where these two sides have been battling for eight years,” the official added, “leads us to assume that this may be a long struggle.”
Russian forces may run out of steam in the coming weeks, according to several reputable military strategists.
Former Australian army commander Mick Ryan said that the Russian military is “approaching its high-water mark in Ukraine,” and that Moscow’s soldiers are “corroding… physically, morally, and intellectually from within.”
“Russian alternatives are dwindling,” noted Michael Kofman, the director of Russia Studies at the CNA security think tank in Washington, last week.
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“The longer they delay, the worse their ability to sustain the fight becomes, and the worse their options become,” Kofman added.
And under the pseudonym “Jomini of the West,” a military analyst who posts well-informed, detailed daily updates on the war situation on Twitter, referred to military theorist Carl von Clausewitz’s concept of a “culminating point,” the peak of a military’s fighting ability after which an attack cannot be sustained.
“Russian forces may be approaching a point where they will have no alternative but to suspend offensive operations for a more substantial refit to replace battle losses,” the report says.
According to a Pentagon officer, Russian soldiers are still having trouble sustaining their incursion.
“On its alone, combat capability does not win wars. You must have the desire to battle and excellent leadership. “You need command and control, and they don’t have it,” the official explained.
However, the official stated that neither side is making significant progress along their long front after Ukrainian forces recently drove Russians out of Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city.
“This is a knife struggle,” the officer said, alluding to the Donbas’ close-quarters combat and shelling, as well as the battle lines around Kherson and Mykolayiv.
