A violent Islamist insurgency, approaching starvation, political upheaval, and a threadbare economy in shambles await the winner of Somalia’s tense and long-overdue presidential election on Sunday.

– Mend fences – Somalia’s political leaders squabbled over the election process, and the country’s troubled Horn of Africa country missed the deadline to pick a new leader in February 2021.

When President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, better known by his moniker Farmajo, extended his tenure in an unlawful power grab, the deadlock became violent.

The president appointed his prime minister to organize a new referendum, but the assignment strained relations between the two men, making the vote even more improbable.

The crisis paralyzed the government at a time when stability was badly needed to confront the burning challenges at hand, analysts said.

“It’s really been a lost year for Somalia,” said Omar Mahmood, an analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank.

“This long-awaited election has been divisive. Reconciliation is the most immediate challenge.

“It’s hard to move forward with some of the technical work… that requires a level of cooperation if you don’t have that sort of healing and common vision from the start.”

The president of Farmajo has heightened tensions between the central government and various states, most notably Jubaland, and there have been deadly skirmishes between their soldiers.

The president has been accused of abusing Somalia’s security forces for personal gain.

Divisions within their ranks would also need to be reconciled, according to Samira Said, executive director of the Mogadishu-based Hiraal Institute research tank.

– Security policy – The next president faces a familiar problem that has tormented previous governments for over a decade: the Al-Shabaab militant group’s violent and tenacious insurgency.

In March, the United Nations renewed the mandate of a 20,000-strong African Union force that has been on the ground since 2007 to support the foreign-backed government in confronting the Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists.

The reconfigured mission, dubbed ATMIS, calls for a more offensive strategy than in recent years with the goal of gradually reducing troop numbers to zero by the close of 2024.

Gaid said a new president might consider renegotiating aspects of an agreement signed by Farmajo “at a time where the Somali leadership was not really focused on security imperatives”.

Somalia’s international backers have warned that prolonged infighting over the election has distracted from the threat of Al-Shabaab, which has consolidated its rural territory and in recent months stepped up attacks.

Mahmood said a new leader could also consider a more political approach to tackling the Islamists, and perhaps even set the mood for any possible dialogue with them.

“How a new administration signals about that, the tone it presents, is very important early on,” he said.

“Even if Al-Shabaab isn’t ready right now, it’s sort of opening up a channel… to lay the groundwork” for any dialogue.

“It’s a process, it’s a very long-term thing.”

– Famine forecast –
Somalia is vulnerable to climate shocks, and currently suffering its worst drought in decades.

According to the United Nations, 6.1 million people have been affected, accounting for nearly 40% of the total population, and 760,000 people have evacuated their homes.

Humanitarian organizations have warned that unless help is significantly increased, Somalia might face a famine similar to the one that occurred in 2011, when 260,000 people died of hunger.

The government lacks the resources to deal with the situation on its own.

Political stability in Mogadishu, however, would benefit in coordinating the emergency response and presenting a coherent demand for aid, according to observers.

– Economy on the edge –

A poor, indebted country lacking critical infrastructure, Somalia is dependent on foreign aid to function.

According to the World Bank, nearly three-quarters of Somalia’s 15 million people live on less than $1.90 (1.80 euro) each day.

The election delays threaten a crucial assistance package from the International Monetary Fund, which expires automatically on May 17 if a new administration does not approve key reforms.

The administration has requested a three-month extension to the deadline, although this request has yet to be considered.

The economy expanded by 2.9 percent in 2019 and is expected to grow even more in 2020.

According to the World Bank, it was instead contracted as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, a locust invasion, and floods.

The African Development Bank predicts 3.2 percent growth in 2022, which is still lower than pre-Covid estimates.

Improving tax collection, according to Mahmood, might help protect the economy from future shocks.

Somalia is towards the bottom of Transparency International’s world corruption index, ranking 178 out of 180 countries, alongside Syria.