Spence vs Ugas: Welterweight champions Errol Spence Jr. and Yordenis Ugas have both promised fireworks ahead of Saturday’s huge unification bout from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, despite the fact that their pre-fight pledges differ only in terms of the likely means of victory.
“I’m the type of guy that if I have to go toe-to-toe, I will,” Spence said at Thursday’s final press conference. “If I have to stay there and fight, I will. If we get in the clinch and start fighting, I don’t think it’s going 12 rounds.”
“Spence promises a knockout. I promise a win,” Ugas said. “Don’t miss it!”
When Spence (27-0, 21 KOs) defends his WBC and IBF crowns at 147 pounds against WBA titleholder Ugas (27-4, 12 KOs) in the main event of a Premier Boxing Champions event set to air on Showtime PPV, he will complete a 17-month hiatus following surgery on a detached retina (9 p.m. ET).
The fight is expected to crown a new power broker within the division, as well as provide more clarity on the route to a probable undisputed championship bout for the winner against unbeaten WBO champion Terence Crawford.
The fact that Ugas, 35, is in this situation at all is one of boxing’s most compelling human interest stories. From a dangerous defection from Cuba to back-to-back losses in 2014 that looked to mark him as a failed prospect at the time, the former Cuban amateur star has seen it all.
With the exception of a split-decision 2019 title loss against Shawn Porter, which most did not even perceive as a loss, Ugas has only won since then.
Not only do some observers believe Ugas should have been awarded the nod on the scorecards, but they also believe he was wrongfully denied a knockdown in the 12th round by referee Jack Reiss, which may have changed the outcome.
After filling in for an injured Spence against Manny Pacquiao on short notice two years later, Ugas turned in his most stunning performance to date last October when he defeated the Filipino superstar to win the WBA title.
“I’m a warrior. I’m a competitor. I’ve been facing adversity ever since I was six or seven years old,” Ugas said. “I’ve been fighting ever since I was a little kid. This is nothing new to me. I promise you blood, sweat, and everything that I have to give for my country and for my fans.
“People know my story by now. I came back from being 15-3 [following a two-year layoff] back in 2016 and ever since then, I have established myself as part of the elite in this division. If [Spence] is the big fish, I belong in that same tank because I’m willing to swim with the big fishes whenever, wherever.”
Much of the build-up to the fight has revolved around concerns that Spence, a 32-year-old from nearby Desoto, Texas, may not be the same fighter physically after undergoing eye surgery as well as surviving a drunken crash in late 2019 in which he was lucky to escape after being ejected from his vehicle.
“When people say I can’t do this or I can’t do that, I prove them wrong every time,” Spence said. “I am the same guy I was before the accident and the injury. I feel like I’m better than that guy that fought Shawn Porter or Danny García.”
Spence’s confidence, despite his physical difficulties, stems from the fact that he has acquired a work ethic that he didn’t have when he first rose to the top.
Spence has hired a nutritionist for the first time this camp to avoid the difficult weight cuts to 147 pounds he has faced in the past. With his partying and ballooning in weight between fights now behind him.
With the likes of Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather out of the equation, there’s no denying that Spence has the strongest credentials at 147 pounds in this new era.
In that order, the Texan has defeated Chris Algieri, Kell Brook, Lamont Peterson, Mikey Garcia, Porter, and Danny Garcia. There’s also the chance of bringing in Crawford or former unified champion Keith Thurman in the future.
“Everybody knows my motivation,” Spence said. “I fight for my family, my friends, my city, the whole state of Texas. I want to be the three-belt unified champion of the world and I want to become the future undisputed welterweight champion of the world. The first ever to do it.
“This is my house. This is my hometown. I love the Dallas Cowboys to death. I love AT&T Stadium and I appreciate them giving me the hospitality and making this my home. Come Saturday night, I’m going to win another championship in the home of the Cowboys.”
Once the PPV kicks off at 9 p.m. ET, a trio of fights in the lightweight and welterweight divisions will take place just below the main event.
The action begins at 147 pounds, as undefeated prospect Cody Crowley will face veteran Josesito Lopez. Then there’s a fight between Jose Valenzuela and Francisco Vargas, followed by a 135-pound duel between Isaac Cruz and Yuriokis Gamboa.
In Texas, it’s going to be a hectic night. Before making a prediction and picking on the main event, let’s take a look at the entire fight card with the most recent odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Fight card, odds
- Errol Spence, Jr. (c) -650 vs. Yordenis Ugas (c) +475, welterweight unification
- Isaac Cruz -1500 vs. Yuriokis Gamboa +850, lightweight
- Jose Valenzuela -1100 vs. Francisco Vargas +700, lightweight
- Cody Crowley -450 vs. Josesito Lopez +350, welterweight
- Eimantas Stanionis -130 vs. Radzhab Butaev +110, welterweight
- Brandun Lee -3000 vs. Zachary Ochoa +1300, junior welterweight
Viewing information
- Date: April 16
- Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
- Start time: 9 p.m. ET
- PPV price: $74.99
- How to watch: Showtime PPV
- Stream: Showtime
Spence vs Ugas Prediction, pick
The crux of the conflict is straightforward. If the same Spence that beat Brook, Porter, and both Garcias shows up inside AT&T Stadium, he should be able to beat a tenacious Ugas. Anything less, on the other hand, and you’ve got a trap fight on your hands.
Because both fighters are large for the division, Ugas won’t have the pronounced edge he’s had in recent battles over other elite rivals, as Spence, who is one-half inch taller, has a three-inch reach advantage.
Spence, a southpaw, is also one of the most well-rounded welterweights in recent memory, having demonstrated that he can brawl his way to major wins (Porter) just as readily as he can box from the outside and surgically manage the terms (Mikey Garcia).
The issue for Ugas will be if he can persuade Spence to fight at close quarters throughout and, more critically, at a fast enough pace to negate Spence’s advantages as a world-class boxer.
Because of his technically sound defence, Ugas tends to crowd his opponents behind his high guard. It’s a style reminiscent of Ronald “Winky” Wright, a Hall of Famer and former undisputed junior middleweight champion.
Because Ugas can operate at close range without being reckless, his opponents are constantly under pressure to fight out of character and take risks.
One only needs to look at the Pacquiao bout to realise how deadly Ugas’ style can be when he’s in control of the battle’s terms.
Ugas connected on a whopping 60% of his power strikes against Pacquiao, and he’s no stranger to throwing inside combos.
Everything from Spence’s length to his footwork and pace should be too much for Ugas in a competitive fight if he can keep this a boxing match.
Spence, on the other hand, had been dragged into a conflict before by Porter, despite the fact that his team had devised a strategy to achieve exactly the opposite.
Porter’s dilemma in 2019 versus Spence was that he had the heart and aggression to make it a fight of the year contender, but he lacked the firepower to hand Spence his first professional loss.
Even if Ugas is successful in enticing Spence into a more offensive posture, he may find himself in the same situation, which is why Ugas will have to take more risks than he usually does if he wants to be great enough to win the fight.
The good news is that this one has the makings of a thrilling high-speed chess encounter, especially in the second half, when Ugas usually adjusts and surges.
But it’s difficult to picture Spence not having the tools to figure out a way to win unless he appears physically compromised in a championship bout.
Spence’s jab, as well as his ability to make Ugas pay for setting up shop so close to him on the inside, will be crucial in this situation.
This could happen as a result of Spence’s left hooks to the body or a judgement that Ugas’ firepower isn’t enough to keep him from moving forward in vital areas.
The sad fact for Ugas is that he might execute his game plan flawlessly on Saturday and still lack the extra gear required to defeat a historically significant player like Spence.
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