According to an analyst, Vladimir Putin would not issue the order to fire his nuclear weapons since he knows it will be ignored by his staff.
The Russian Putin issued an ominous threat of “consequences larger than any in history” to Western nations who back Ukraine, yet it is widely assumed that Russia will never use its nuclear weapons.
According to Christo Grozev of the specialist news group Bellingcat, Putin will not issue the order to deploy nuclear weapons since he is aware of a big number of officials who are hesitant to implement this directive.
“Putin would not give an order to deploy nuclear weapons if he is not certain that the order will be carried out,” he told the BBC’s Ukrainian news station. It has been asserted in recent weeks that a considerable proportion of policemen are not prepared to carry out such directives.
“The fact that he will question reduces the likelihood that he will make such a choice,” he added.
A revolt of that magnitude may be catastrophic to Putin’s “strongman” image.
Desertion and outright mutiny are rumoured to have divided Russia’s invading army. Around 60 Russian paratroopers staged a mutiny last week and refused to attack Ukrainian soldiers.
In a second incident, a Russian commander was purposely driven over by a tank — and, according to some sources, killed – in retaliation for the “magnitude of losses that his brigade had suffered.”
And the mutinies aren’t only on land. According to Olexander Scherba, a former Ukrainian ambassador, Russian marines from the 810th Brigade refused to leave their ship and attack the city of Odesa.
He said on Twitter: “Last night, a huge fleet of Russian vessels was preparing to arrive on the beaches of Odesa.
“They got closer to the coast. Russia was on its way to shell the beach. Ukraine was preparing to retaliate when they abruptly withdrew.
“There are reports that Crimean marines declined to invade Odesa.”
Perhaps most concerning to the Russian high command is the fact that an entire unit of the Ukrainian army is made up completely of individuals who have deserted from Russian battalions.
In that context, Grozev’s forecast that Russian commanders charged with a mission that would almost surely result in the end of life as we know it will be hesitant to press the trigger makes sense.
At least four times in history, lone individuals resisted orders to hit the deadly button.
The most tense moment occurred in the early 1980s, when a satellite early-warning system near Moscow reported what seemed to be a US missile launch.
