Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised the spectre of something previously considered almost unthinkable: the use of a small nuclear weapon during a European conflict.
AFP examines the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin would authorise a “tactical” nuclear strike against a country with which he has repeatedly claimed to be “one people.”

Why is there concern?

In a highly choreographed meeting in front of TV cameras on February 27, three days after the invasion began, Putin directed his defence chiefs to place Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert.

Western countries reacted quickly, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling the move “provocative” and “the height of irresponsibility.”

Most Western analysts believe the rhetoric was intended to discourage the US and its allies from expanding their support for Ukraine beyond existing economic sanctions and weapons supplies.

“Not only is this meant to instil fear throughout the world; it’s also meant to scare anyone from assisting in Ukraine,” Beatrice Fihn, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, told AFP.

How big is Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

According to the Stockholm-based SIPRI peace research institute, Russia has the most nuclear warheads of any country, with 6,255.

According to experts, the risk in Ukraine is not the deployment of a massive “strategic” weapon that would endanger the entire planet.

Instead, Putin may be tempted to use a “tactical” weapon with a smaller warhead that causes localised devastation but does not endanger European lives.

These weapons come in a variety of sizes, and their effectiveness is determined by whether they explode at ground level or above the Earth’s surface.

Aren’t nuclear weapons a last resort?

Yes, but Ukraine and Western capitals are concerned that Putin will be cornered, suffering major battlefield losses and domestic economic problems that will jeopardise his political survival.

A tactical nuclear strike would be used to break Ukrainian forces’ resistance and force President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender.

According to Pavel Luzin, an expert at the Russia-focused think tank Riddle, the first step would be the use of a tactical weapon over the sea or in an uninhabited area as a form of intimidation.

“After that, if the adversary still wants to fight, it may be used directly against the adversary,” he said, referring to a city.

Christopher Chivvis, the top US intelligence official for Europe from 2018 to 2021, recently stated that there were “only two paths” to end the war.

“One is continued escalation, potentially crossing the nuclear threshold; the other is a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine,” he wrote in The Guardian.

What does the Kremlin say?

On Tuesday, CNN interviewer Christiane Amanpour asked Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov three times if the use of nuclear weapons was ruled out.

Instead, he cited Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which was published in 2020, and in which “you can read all the reasons for nuclear weapons to be used.”

“If it is an existential threat to our country,” Peskov said, “it can be used in accordance with our concept.”

Recent Kremlin claims that Ukraine is developing chemical, biological, or even nuclear weapons, which have been dismissed as disinformation by Western officials, are cause for concern.

“The use of a weapon of mass destruction against Russia would be a doctrinal justification for responding with a nuclear weapon,” said Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, an expert on Russia’s nuclear doctrine at the University of Oslo.

Is this just alarmism?

Possibly. According to William Alberque, an arms control expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think tank, Putin will not use tactical nuclear weapons.

“The political cost of using nuclear weapons would be exorbitant. He’d lose the little support he has left. The Indians would have to leave. The Chinese, too, “He stated.

Putin’s concern about his own place in history, according to Ven Bruusgaard, may deter him.

He would also need permission from either Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to launch one.