That was the win probability for Wisconsin in the second half of its stunning upset loss to Nebraska on Sunday. That’s how close the Badgers came to winning the Big Ten regular season title for the first time since 2015.
The Badgers’ odds should have felt much higher for the Huskers, who came in as 12.5-point underdogs and announced 15 minutes before tipoff that their leading scorer, freshman guard Bryce McGowens, would be out with a wrist injury.
Win probability can be a volatile barometer at times, but it provides an accurate assessment of a game’s momentum. When Nebraska took an unexpected 30-18 lead in the first half, the Badgers still had a better-than-55 percent chance of winning. Despite trailing by four points at halftime, Wisconsin’s win probability had risen to 68.1 percent.
When Nebraska junior guard Trey McGowens was called for a flagrant two foul and ejected from the game after hitting Wisconsin sophomore guard Johnny Davis in the face on a layup, the game appeared to be over.
After looking at the referees, senior guard Alonzo Verge Jr. was called for a technical foul, implying he expected a foul call on his made shot. Nebraska had eight fouls in the first four minutes of the half, while Wisconsin had one. The Badgers’ win expectancy had reached 84.7 percent by that point, and the game felt like it tangibly flipped as their lead quickly grew into the double digits.
But, despite being without its leading scorer, losing another starter midway through the game, and being deep in foul trouble early on, Nebraska defeated the Big Ten’s top team and earned its first AP Top 10 win since 2014.
Despite the absence of Bryce McGowens, the Huskers came out firing, buoyed by their two-game road winning streak. Within the first four minutes, they forced four turnovers against the risk-averse Badgers and jumped out to a 10-3 lead on a triumvirate of layups.
The Huskers led by 12 points twice in the first half, the second time after freshman guard CJ Wilcher hit Nebraska’s first 3-pointer of the game with just under 8:00 remaining in the half. For the first 15 minutes of the game, the Huskers made their 2-point attempts and did not commit a turnover. Even as Wisconsin stormed back with a 16-4 run, Nebraska had answers and held on for a 40-36 halftime lead.
The Huskers took an eight-point lead early in the second half, but the flagrant on Trey McGowens, which took both him and Davis out of the game, and the subsequent call on Verge had the effect of tangibly flipping the game’s momentum. It sparked a run in which the Badgers scored 10 of their 12 points on free throws. This was part of a larger 25-7 run that gave Wisconsin a 62-52 lead with less than 12 minutes left.
With the score suddenly flipped away from home and much less to play for than their opponent, the Huskers could have given up. They didn’t do it.
Nebraska’s rise did not come as quickly as its fall had. Rather, the Huskers crept back into the game, the rising anxiety only visible in the announcers’ rising inflections.
With 7:05 remaining, senior guard Kobe Webster hit a 3-pointer to cut the lead to 66-62, but Wisconsin responded with five straight points, including a 3-pointer from senior guard Brad Davison. With five and a half minutes remaining, the Huskers went on an incredible 12-0 run that gave them a lead with thirty seconds remaining.
It began with a free throw by junior forward Derrick Walker, followed by layups by Wilcher and Verge, and a pair of free throws by Verge to make it a one-possession game with 2:24 remaining. Wisconsin missed on the other end, and Verge, who isn’t known for his long-range shooting, sank a 3-pointer to give Nebraska a new lead.
“He just made play, after play, after play,” Hoiberg said of Verge on his postgame radio show. “I could not be more proud of that kid for the way he has continued to battle.”
The Badgers’ long possession was fruitless, as they missed two shots. With 44 seconds left, Verge forced a shot, but Walker grabbed a massive offensive rebound, a rare occurrence for Nebraska, to keep possession. Verge was fouled and calmly made both of his free throws to give Nebraska a three-point lead with 37 seconds remaining.
As Wisconsin freshman guard Chucky Hepburn, a Nebraska native, shot a three-pointer, Davison missed a three-pointer, the Badgers got an offensive rebound, and Verge picked up his fifth foul. He only made two free throws to cut Nebraska’s lead to one before Wilcher missed a free throw on the other end. Hepburn had a chance to repeat his heroics from earlier in the week against Purdue, but he missed the potential game-winning 3-pointer, leaving Wisconsin stunned and devastated on senior night.
Seven days earlier, the Huskers had done the same thing to Penn State in a much more convincing 23-point victory, and they then beat No. 23 Ohio State in Columbus on Tuesday for their first Top 25 win in Hoiberg’s three-year tenure. With four conference victories, the Husker coach, who was rumoured to be on the hot seat just a week ago, now has his highest win total in Big Ten play. It is also the first time Hoibeg has won three consecutive conference games.
The Huskers overcame one starter missing the entire game and another missing the majority of the second half, questionable officiating decisions, an entire arena yelling profanities, and a double-digit deficit against a Top 10 team, all of which contributed to Wisconsin’s seemingly insurmountable win probability.
“It was an emotional game and a battle against adversity,” Hoiberg said.
Following a sloppy start, the Badgers reverted to their nation-leading 8.6 turnovers per game, committing only nine. Offensively, the Huskers lost the turnover battle and the rebounding battle (13-5), but they won by shooting 66.6 percent inside the arc and 53.7 percent overall. Verge led the way with a masterclass performance, making 9-of-13 2-point attempts and finishing with a game-high 26 points and six assists.
Wisconsin was led by Davison’s 20 points and Walker’s 15 points and seven rebounds. Davis, a candidate for National Player of the Year, played only 11 minutes due to foul trouble in the first half and an injury in the second. Despite this, Bryce McGowens sat out the game after scoring 25 and 26 points in Nebraska’s previous two games. Hoiberg stated on his radio show that he hopes to return for the Big Ten Tournament.
To further demonstrate how Nebraska’s 74-73 victory defied all expectations, the Cornhuskers were previously 0-3 in one-possession games this season, including those that went to overtime. Wisconsin had won 15 games in a row that were decided by two possessions or less.
