The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is once again in the spotlight as news of the release of their prisoners from Pakistani captivity started appearing last Sunday, indicating that the two sides are probably reengaging in peace talks after a failed attempt in November last year.
Many journalists shared credible information and their views about the prisoners’ release on assorted social media platforms; some even hinted that a resumption of talks between the Pakistan-designated jirga and the leaders of the TTP in Afghanistan are on the anvil.
Some estimations suggest that Pakistan has released 42 TTP prisoners, while other claims put the number at 76, at different intervals since last year’s talks between Pakistan and the terrorist group fighting against the state’s writ in the tribal districts adjacent to the troublesome porous border with Afghanistan.
The TTP meanwhile, has often denied the release of their prisoners and have, on the contrary, alleged that the Pakistani authorities have in fact recaptured many previously released prisoners. “There are allegations from both sides. Most of the time these [prisoners being referred to are relatively insignificant individuals] whose release isn’t always linked to the peace process. Some are involved in petty crimes, while others are those who have completed their respective terms in prison,” said Rasool Dawar, a Peshawar-based security expert from Waziristan.
Security analyst Mushtaq Yusufzai, however, argues that some low-cadre TTP prisoners were released as per the wishes of a jirga as a goodwill gesture and as an attempt to build the TTP’s confidence for the resumption of the peace process.
A ten-member jirga of tribal elders (Malaks) from North and South Waziristan led by Malak Nasarullah Khan, Chief of Waziristan, went to Afghanistan via Torkham on Sunday, February 20, to meet, among others, TTP leader Hafiz Gul Bahadur in Khost province for the resumption of the peace process. However, different analysts believe that this jirga is toothless and cannot secure any peace agreement with the mainstream TTP.
“These are respected elders from areas in Waziristan, but the TTP claims they don’t have the authority to enforce any decision vis a vis the Pakistani authorities. They want a guarantor who can practically implement any agreed-upon decisions as a result of peace talks. But no group, organisation or country can take that responsibility given the difficult context of this conflict,” stated security analyst Mushtaq Yusufzai.
Rasool Dawar agrees that no matter how sincere, the jirga cannot deliver a peace deal. “Gul Bahadur has often been seen as a Taliban leader with a soft corner for the State of Pakistan. There were a few agreements with him in the past, but none delivered peace in the region. The negotiators need to engage Noor Wali Mehsud and various factions under his command in order to find a long-term solution for the unrest,” contended Dawar.
According to Mushtaq Yusufzai, another, more important jirga consisting of just four members is now expected to sit with the TTP in Paktika province. “That is an attempt that can deliver something tangible if they succeed. This jirga aims to directly engage the TTP leaders who are conducting attacks on Pakistan and its security forces,” Yusufzai maintained.
He believes that the TTP is under pressure after the Afghan Taliban, who prefer being called the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), expressed their displeasure over the TTP’s attacks on Pakistan using Afghan soil. “Pakistani authorities had recorded their serious protest with the IEA, which resulted in them summoning TTP leaders to Kabul. After talks with the IEA, the TTP leadership issued orders to its commanders to only conduct attacks on Pakistani security forces from within Pakistan in order to respect the IEA demand of no violation of Afghan soil,” Yusufzai claimed.
Seconding Yusufzai’s contention, Kabul University professor and political analyst Faiz Zaland argued that the IEA has a clear policy that all foreign militant groups will have to reconcile with their country of origin, or they will be extradited to a different nation. “But there is no possibility that the IEA will hand over any members of a militant group to a country. They will not take military action against them either. Afghanistan’s rulers have no such agreement with any country at the moment,” said Zaland.
Zaland added that the TTP peace process started many months ago with the assistance of the IEA leaders and while progress was made on a number of points, other issues remained unresolved in the beginning. “Pakistan’s protest to IEA means a lot, but we need to give up the policy of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban. The TTP attacks on Pakistani security forces are an alarming sign. The Pakistani authorities need to seriously indulge in peace talks as the TTP can become a real headache for Pakistan,” Zaland stated, adding that “The IEA and TTP are very close to each other; they have long fought together against foreign troops in Afghanistan. The IEA will not leave their brothers in arms alone when they need their help.”
Although there is little hope for the resumption of peace talks with the forces that matter, Daud Khattak, Radio Free Europe’s Pashto service news chief in Prague strongly believes that peace talks will restart in the near future. “Meeting the precondition of the freeing of prisoners often paves the path to peace talks. There are good chances that two key TTP leaders, Muslim Khan and Mahmood Khan, will be released from captivity in the coming weeks. I believe that both sides will resume peace talks for sure, but there are only 50/50 chances that a peace agreement will be reached. And even if an agreement is made, keeping it intact for long will be extremely challenging,” said Khattak.
Even if peace talks do transpire, many serious challenges will make progress slow and difficult. For example, the TTP wants the abolition of the merger of Fata into the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which the government of Pakistan can never accept. Similarly, the Pakistani authorities would like the TTP to surrender all their weapons, and that is something the TTP will never accept.
Secondly, Pakistan or its military has to do much ground levelling before going into peace talks with the TTP, as the majority of the country’s political parties have strong sentiments against them for their countless attacks on innocent civilians, including schoolchildren and politicians.
Also, Pakistan has a vibrant social media with an ever-increasing number of fearless users. It will be very difficult for the government to control the people’s reactions in response to these talks.
“But most serious of all,” maintained Daud Khattak, “Pakistan already has many swords hanging over its head, and one of those is the FATF. Pakistan is already facing hardships for internationally advocating for the currently under-sanction Afghan Taliban. And then there is the matter of the TTP, which is an internationally banned organisation. The international community and FATF might have a strong reaction if Pakistan went into talks with them without taking the international community into confidence.”
Whatever happens, the TTP will remain a major challenge for Pakistan. What would become of the TTP in case of a peace agreement? There is no possibility that the group and its thousands of members would give up arms and simply return to the mosques or deliver sermons. And other prospects are daunting.
Despite all the challenges and increased action against each other, the security forces and the TTP know well that continued fighting is not the solution. With the melting of snow on the border, cross-border movement will increase, in all likelihood resulting in an increase of TTP intrusion into Pakistan from Afghanistan. This will without doubt result in increased attacks on security forces.
However, the security forces too have increased and can further increase intelligence-based operations against the terrorists in the restive tribal districts, restricting the TTP to smaller areas of operations and restricting their capability of carrying out large-scale terrorist attacks. That notwithstanding, peace talks are important, and if there is no success in the talks, uncertainty will prevail in at least the tribal districts.
