The opposition has stated recently that it would like to bring a no confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan in the National Assembly. However, many argue that the chances of such a vote to succeed is a long shot. Bol News asks four political analysts to give their opinion on the issue.
Ehtishamul Haq
Senior Journalist/Analyst
The no confidence motion by the opposition against Prime Minister Imran Khan is unlikely to succeeded and it seems that it will die a natural death after the recent statements of Punjab Assembly Speaker Chaudhry Pervez Elahi’s son and Federal Minister Moonis Elahi, who claimed that his is a political family that is standing with government as such he would not give a statement without taking his uncle former Prime Minister Chaudhry Shujat Hussain and father Chaudhry Pervez Elahi on board.
Secondly, the opposition does not have the required numbers and require at least nine more votes to succeed. Let me recall, that during the last three-four years the opposition always failed to complete the number game and it seems that they will eventually fail this time too. Just recently the opposition couldn’t manage to stop the the government from passing the State Bank of Pakistan Bill. Furthermore, the opposition had also failed to succeed in the no confidence motion they brought against Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani in August 2019.
If someone could be termed as the hero and villain in this whole no confidence discussions it is none other than former President Asif Ali Zardari who has managed to exact revenge from the Sharifs who are his political opponents. So, in this whole ongoing debate Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) gained the most, while Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) is the party which has emerged as the loser.
Even if we look at the examples in Pakistan’s political history the no confidence motions against former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and former Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin have not succeeded. With this in mind, I believe that the opposition may not even move the no confidence motion and in the case that they do, it is not going to succeed.
Mujahid Barelvi
Senior Journalist/Analyst
Although, the opposition is confidently claiming that they will succeed in bringing the no confidence motion against the PM Imran Khan, recent developments and past practises clearly depict that they are very unlikely to succeed in a no confidence motion against the Premier.
Let me recall, when the no confidence motion was moved by the opposition parties in 2019 against Sanjrani, 64 senators belonging to the opposition rose in their seats to approve the motion seeking permission to move the no-trust motion against Sanjrani submitted by leader of the opposition in the house Raja Zafarul Haq.
However, when it came to the secret balloting, only 50 of these opposition senators voted in favour of the resolution following which two separate committees were formed, one headed by Senator Rana Maqbool of PML-N and second one formed by PPP led by Senator Rehman Malik, to look into the matter. However, both these committee have failed to submit as to which members of the opposition did not vote in favour of the motion, to this day.
Apart from this Pakistan Muslim League Quaid has also rightly raised concerns regarding the opposition’s strategy around the no confidence motion. They have asked what will the shadow cabinet of the opposition look like, who will be the candidate for PM, what is their future strategy, will the new government opt for early elections or will the elections be held in 2023? As it stands, the opposition seems to have no plan or agenda.
In my opinion, I strongly believe that the opposition will not be able to succeed in passing the no confidence motion against the prime minister due to their lack proper planning. They have failed to mend their ways and have historically never managed to show the required numbers whenever they were needed.
Dr. Marium Kamal
Assistant Professor CSAS PU
Pakistani domestic politics is all about back-channelling – what is shown doesn’t reflect actual motivations. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) is one such example that reflects its own interests in the name of public welfare and democracy. However, PDM’s current move of vote of no confidence seems one of the pressure tactics for its future agenda, particularly for its political stake in the 2023 elections.
PMD President Maulana Fazalur Rehman is trying to garner support for a no confidence motion against the PM, ignoring the fact that such support hinges on the him successfully confirming positions for allies in the upcoming scenario, should the motion prove to be successful. Secondly, the matrix of Pakistani politics follows a triangular order, which is itself decisive in nature, nothing can be done without dominant ascent. Accordingly, any such move without support can’t be successful or applicable in Pakistan’s existing political structure.
The no confidence motion process needs only a majority in the National Assembly to be legitimate, but to be effective it needs veiled support and future viable alternative options to proceed with democratic setup. Nevertheless, PDM is all about self-interest, opposition to the incumbent system and politics to manage and not to provide solutions. To launch an effective motion, PDM needs to be true and mature in its opposition towards the social unjust, miss-governance, economic upheaval, institutional imbalance, disobedience of rule of law, gender inequality, and lastly, religious extremism.
PDM has nothing to offer to the nation other than their personal political cleavages, false claims and self-motivated interests to share power in the upcoming elections. With the way things are now, this movement won’t succeed at all. Realistically this just needs to be considered part of the opposition parties’ 2023 election campaign and nothing more.
Behzad Taimur
Geo-political analyst
Despite the opposition wanting to move a no confidence motion, there is talk of a long-march to Islamabad. My simple question is this: how can there be a long-march if there is going to be a successful no confidence motion in parliament? That is to say, if the opposition has as much confidence in its ability to win the vote as it says it does, then why is it still planning a long march? Who will that be against? Clearly, the opposition is still not certain of its success in the parliament.
Yet, in his press conference, PDM President Maulana Fazlur Rehman had stated that they were “political persons” who made “calculated decisions”.
So, the real question is, what is the calculation behind opening these two fronts concurrently. In my view, the answer to that is another question: who was that statement meant for? For the general public, the government, the allied opposition, or government’s allies? I think political parties are now going into election mode. PML-N has built a policy of resistance, especially since 2008.
It is banking on it’s old tried and tested formula of drumming up public outrage and riding a wave of popular support to power. Similarly, the PPP has taken a leaf out of PML-N’s book and wants to lead a farmers’ march north of Karachi.
The government’s allies are also repositioning themselves to face the public before the elections and cannot be too closely aligned with an increasingly unpopular government.
In fact, parleying with opposition parties at this moment in time presents an artificially inflated picture of their real stature.
Note that PML-Q has just five and Muttahida Qaumi Movement has just two seats in the house of 342. In the end, everyone will get something out of this and the actual results of the no-confidence motion are less important.
