‘Deal’ is the buzzword in Pakistani politics these days! With the PTI government under pressure because of the soaring inflation and multiple economic challenges, rumours are rife that the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are all in talks with the establishment, hoping to strike a ‘deal’ that could propel them as the next ruling party in the 2023 polls.

Since December last, the media channels have been awash with highly speculative reports of a ‘deal’ between the ousted prime minister, Nawaz Sharif and the establishment. It was being claimed by a few PML-N stalwarts and media persons that Sharif could land in Pakistan earlier than expected to face the court cases against him and which may eventually get dropped under the supposed ‘deal,’ paving the way for his candidature in the next elections.

However, these speculations gradually died down following Major Gen. Babar Iftikhar categorically rejected them in his first media briefing of the New Year.

In Pakistani politics, however, hardly a day goes by without a new controversy. The successful passage of the State Bank of Pakistan Amendment Bill 2021 by the government in the opposition-dominated Senate has triggered a new wave of speculations – this time around of a possible deal between the PPP and the establishment.

The PPP detractors find it hard to digest that an experienced parliamentarian like Yousuf Raza Gilani could be absent from the important Senate session without any firm reason.

His absence along with the few other opposition senators is seen as a huge favour to the government as it gave the treasury benches the crucial one-vote lead to get the SBP bill passed.

And this is not the first time that the PPP has popped off the opposition balloon. In the past, on several occasions the PPP leadership has taken an altogether different line from the other opposition parties even when it was part of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). From shooting down the PDM’s demand of tendering resignations from the parliament to that of getting its man elected as the opposition leader in the Senate, the PPP has stuck to its own gameplan despite all the tough talk against the government.

The trend of electable politicians joining the PPP in Punjab, the KP and Balochistan have further fueled rumours that there is a method to this madness.

In the KP, Federal Defence Minister Pervez Khattak’s brother and nephew recently joined the PPP, while the disgruntled PTI leader Noor Alam Khan is also expected to switch loyalties before the next elections.

Another PTI leader Zeeshan Khanzada may also jump the government ship to join the PPP along with his father Khanzada Khan after he was issued a show-cause notice by the party leadership, a senior PPP leader told Bol News.

“Khanzada Khan is a former PPP leader who was an elected MNA in 1993 and 2008 on the PPP ticket from Mardan. He was also awarded a party ticket in 2013 elections, but was unsuccessful and later PPP President Asif Ali Zardari made him a senator in 2015,” he said.

The PTI sources said that Khanzada was convinced by his son, Zeeshan, to join the PTI in 2017, but now they have made up their mind to rejoin PPP.

In Balochistan, former chief minister Nawab Sanaullah Zehri, ex-federal minister Abdul Qadir Baloch and Nawabzada Aminullah Khan Raisani, the brother of former Chief Minister Aslam Raisani and son of former governor Balochistan Ghous Bakhsh Raisani have recently joined the PPP.

“Sardar Yar Muhammad Rind, the former PTI Balochistan president and parliamentary leader in Balochistan is also unhappy with their leadership because his son was not awarded a ticket in the Senate elections last year. Since then, he has met the PPP President Asif Ali Zardari twice,” a source said.

In Punjab, several electable politicians have already joined the PPP bandwagon, while numerous others are in touch with the party leadership.

From South Punjab, former governor, Sardar Zulfikar Khan Khosa, former MNA Muhammad Jahangir Khan from Layyah, former MNA Noor Muhammad Khan Bhabha along with his brother have joined the PPP.

In Central Punjab, former provincial forest minister Rai Ijaz Ahmad Khan and few others are now in the PPP.

Is there a ‘deal’?

Leading political analyst Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi said that the establishment never ever locks a ‘deal’ with anyone. “They communicate with all and put across their narrative and point-of-view to all the political parties.”

“They might have better communication with the PPP these days, but I don’t think there is any concrete deal that has been struck whatsoever. The establishment always enjoys a good relationship with the ruling party and has a bond with the government of the day, which is the PTI now. And this relationship is Constitutional, so the PTI has an edge there. Unless they also ruin it like the PML-N and Nawaz Sharif did in the past, I don’t see a big change coming,” Rizvi said.

Senior PPP leader Qamar Zaman Kaira said that it’s not PPP’s style of politics to strike a ‘deal’ with the establishment and this impression is wrong.

“Whenever we are in power, we ensure and are in favor of a good working relationship with the establishment. We are a democratic party and we don’t believe in such deals to come into power,” he said.

PPP’s past ‘deals’

However, Lahore-based journalist and analyst Ahsan Raza said that the PPP has long been a player of ‘deal’ with the establishment. “We cannot forget that in 2007, Benazir Bhutto ended her exile and came to Pakistan after striking a deal with Gen. Pervez Musharraf.”

“Ironically, the central leadership of the PPP is not working too hard to defy the impression, mainly for its ulterior gains.”

Agreeing with Raza, seasoned analyst Behzad Taimur said the possibility of any party’s ‘deal’ is tied to the broader question on how real is the supposed involvement and influence of such apolitical actors.

“Thus, without over-emphasizing any one particular player in national politics, one can simplify and look at a political party’s future. In any case, the discussion on PPP and a “deal” really masks the question on the political future of the said party,” Taimur said, adding that from a historical perspective, the PPP has remained, both, a leader and a victim to several changing coalitions of influential actors on both sides of the state-society divide.

He recalled that at one point in time, the PPP led a coalition of civic groups, especially student, trade and labour unions. “As time moved forward, the coalition that had catapulted the PPP fell into disarray and a separate coalition of several political parties, with a coalition of trading bodies, business community and religious organizations, swept it from power.”

“Then, during the military government of Gen (r) Pervez Musharraf, when political exile had to be overcome and democracy restored, the PPP managed to cobble a fresh arrangement, this time parlaying with the military junta and ensured its return. So, this back and forth has gone on since time immemorial.”

Politics of electable candidates

The joining of electable politicians in the PPP gives rise to another question, whether these newcomers are also convinced that the PPP has locked a deal with the establishment.

“It is strange that when electable candidates join other parties it is fair, but when they join the PPP, people start this kind of talk that the PPP has struck a deal with the establishment,” said Kaira. “The truth is that these electable candidates have joined the PPP because they believe that this government has failed to deliver and this is a better platform for them.

Commenting on the situation at hand, Dr Rizvi said that electable candidates are getting in the PPP’s fold mainly because the PTI has failed to establish itself as a solid alternative to the PML-N.  “So, the politicians who were close to the PPP and anti-PML-N started joining the PPP. I don’t think that they are joining the PPP because of some deal with the establishment,” Dr Rizvi concluded.

However, Taimur said that the PPP is once more aspiring to return to power in Islamabad. “Therefore, we must look at the coalition of support groups it can cobble together. At this time, there is some talk of the PPP trying to make in-roads into the KP province. It seems to have secured a few victories there but so far they are too few to suggest a major turning point in the political fortunes of the party.”

“If the PPP needs to short-cut this process, then it must look at cutting the right deals in Balochistan, South Punjab and, of course, Karachi, the one big, nationally relevant, but recently-forgotten bed of political possibilities that has recently fallen wide-open.

“The PPP must engage all of them. If it is already doing it, then it makes logical sense from PPP’s perspective,” Taimur said.

Bilawal refutes

On February 1, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said that rumours of his party’s growing relations with the establishment are pure media speculation. “The PPP demands a neutral role of the establishment in politics. That will really help,” said Bilawal.

But deal or no deal, it is a fact that all the major political parties in the country tend to use these rumours and speculations to further their politics and want people to believe that they remain in a serious run for power.