LAHORE: In June this year when the PPP bigwigs threw the gauntlet and boasted that party will make substantial gains in Punjab politics very soon, only a few took the claims seriously. But party chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari knew what he was talking about.
On December 5, the N-133 by-elections in Lahore and later in Khanewal by-polls held on December 16, the results to a large extent vindicated Bilawal and Company. The PPP vote bank increased in Lahore’s by-polls from 5,585 votes to 32,313 (an increase of 478.57 percent) while its candidate Aslam Gill stood second to PML-N’s Shaista Pervez Malik.Later, in the December 16 by polls in Khanewal PP-26, PPP’s Mir Wasiq secured more than 15,059 votes compared to 6,617 votes he got in the 2018 general elections, showing an increase of 127.58 percent in votes.
According to political pundits, following the sharp increase in vote bank in the two by-polls, PPP is really geared up to fully revive its politics in the Punjab province and is seriously planning to to make a thumping comeback there. The fact that PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has announced to launch the anti-government drive from Lahore on January 5 goes out to show the party’s solid intent to move forward.
Earlier, in November, PPP President Asif Ali Zardari spent more than two weeks in Lahore in lead up to NA-133 (Lahore) and PP-206 (Khanewal) by polls. Soon afterwards Bilawal also spent a few days in Lahore in which he met senior party leaders and some of the electables belonging to Central and South Punjab, who are likely to join the party before the next general elections. Their sudden, though much delayed, focus on Punjab made it abundantly clear that the PPP has finally realised that the decisive battleground in the 2023 general elections will be Punjab.
According to the party insiders, in the preceding months Bilawal Bhutto was repeatedly asked by senior party leaders to spend more time in Punjab if he wanted to reorganize the party here, but he never paid heed to these suggestions.
They added that Bilawal had canceled his Lahore visit numerous times this year in August, and then later when he was supposed to visit central Punjab and Lahore after a weeklong visit to South Punjab in September which he extended by three days after receiving a good response from the masses and electable there. “He only visited Lahore after former premier Raja Pervez Ashraf carried out an excellent campaign in NA-133 which helped PPP a great deal and the party’s presence was felt in the region after decades,” a senior party leader said.
However, a million dollar question now remains is that can the PPP manage to convert these recent improvements in vote bank into victories and regain its lost fiefdom.
Analyst Sajjad Mir, while analysing on the situation, said that PPP has only managed to get a good number of votes in Lahore because the PTI candidate was not contesting the by polls while their vote bank in Khanewal by polls increased because people were unhappy with the government due to rising inflation.
“PPP’s position is still very weak in Punjab and during the next general elections the contest will be between the PTI and PML-N,” Mir said confidently and added that they will find it difficult to get candidates for all the constituencies of Punjab in the next general elections.
On the other hand, acclaimed analyst Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, speaking to Bol News, said that the increase in vote bank in the recent by polls has motivated PPP to concentrate in Punjab, but currently the party’s position in the province is not that strong. “They really need to work hard in Punjab and have to make an all-out effort to reorganize the party in Punjab, motivate their workers and win back the disgruntled leaders,” Dr Rizvi said.
‘Number of electables set to join PPP’
Following a survey carried out by Bol News, it has become increasingly clear that a large number of electables who had joined Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government before the 2013 and 2018 elections – from central and South Punjab – are now in constant touch with the PPP top brass and are all set to jump the ship before the next general elections. It may be mntioned here that a majority of these electables had joined PTI after they were convinced by disgruntled PTI leader Jahangir Khan Tareen and Shah Mahmood Qureshi.
As per the information gathered, Nazar Gondal, Nadeem Afzal Chan, Raja Riaz from Faisalabad, Imtiaz Safdar Warraich from Gujranwala, Samsam Bukhari and Ashraf Sohna from Okara, Aamir Dogar from Multan, Sardar Saif Khan Khosa from Dera Ghazi Khan, Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan Jatoi and Dr Shabbir Qureshi from Muzaffargarh, and Malik Niaz Jhakkar are in contact with the PPP leadership.
They claimed that PTI’s disgruntled leader Jahangir Khan Tareen has also made up his mind to join PPP and is only waiting for the right time. “He (Tareen) could join the PPP any day before the next general elections,” claimed a senior PPP leader. The party insiders also told Bol News that some of the electables from Punjab have delayed the announcement of joining PPP as they are waiting for the release of development funds for their constituencies from the Buzdar government.
“Few of these electables have already distanced themselves from PTI meetings and other political activities, and are just waiting for the right time,” a senior party leader claimed.
When asked whether electables can join the PPP at the moment, Dr Askari said that it is too early to predict that because the electables always make calculated moves. “Ïn my opinion, the electbles will only decide which party they are going to join in the next general elections by September or October next year,” said Askari.
Sajjad Mir, however, disagreed with Askari.and said that it will be injudicious move on part of the electables if they decide to join PPP in the next general elections, as they will end up losing their seats.
Analyst and senior journalist Ahsan Raza, meanwhile, is of the opinion that Bilawal’s statement that PPP would launch an anti-government drive from January 5 is only meant to boost the PPP audience and to go one-up on PDM who are planning a long march in March. “The PPP drive is unlikely to threaten the government,” said Ahsan. As the PDM is planning a long march on Islamabad in March, so the PPP has also thought of stealing media and public attention before the PDM big show,” he said while recalling that PPP had also initiated a protest drive against inflation and power and gas shortage in November but it fizzled out.
In the final analysis, it appears that while the PPP has marginally improved its graph in Punjab, the partty still has a long way to go to create a major upset or surprise for the ruling PTI in Punjab.
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