LAHORE: All the leading political parties including Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are all set to contest the PP-206 Khanewal by-polls scheduled for December 16.

The seat fell vacant after the death of PML-N’s Nishat Khan Daha who breathed his last on October 23.

In 2018 general elections, Nishat Daha secured this seat by getting 51,353 votes followed by Rana Mohammad Saleem, who contested the polls from PTI’s platform, with 47,807 votes.

PPP’s Mir Syed Wasiq Haider stood third with 6,617 votes and Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP)’s Mohammad Amir Sohail came fourth with 5,764 votes. Interestingly, in this by-polls contest, Daha’s wife Naureen has jumped ship and will contest the elections from the PTI ticket, while Saleem has joined the PML-N’s ranks.

Read more: PML-N asks ECP to take action against PTI officials in PP-206 by-election

Initially, more than 20 candidates were contesting the by-polls but according to the final list issued by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), 13 candidates will fight for this provincial assembly constituency on Dec 16.

The people who had initially submitted the nomination papers for this by-polls include Nishat Daha’s widow Naureen Nishat, Rana Mohammad Saleem, Rana Haseeb Saleem, Rana Waseem Hanif, Masood Majeed Daha, Waqar Khan Daha, Manzoor Sultani, Mohammad Akmal, Imran Parvazi Dhol, Ghulam Ghaus, Sara Khan Daha, Mir Wasiq, Rana Farman, Rana Irfan, Rana Abdul Rahman, Mohammad Imran, retired Col Abid Khaga, Mohammad Tanveer, Mohammad Suleman and Mohammad Amjad.

According to ECP, 183 polling stations will be established for PP-206 by-polls out of which there will be 62 polling stations for male voters and 60 polling stations for female voters while 61 polling stations will be combined.

As per ECP, there are 230,698 voters in this constituency out of which 125,190 are male voters whereas 105,508 female voters.

Read more: ECP to place CCTV cameras at sensitive polling stations in PP-206, NA-133

A senior ECP official told Bol News that they will establish 268 polling booths for male voters and 244 polling booths for female voters and the election will be held on Dec 16 as announced by ECP.

Neck-and-neck contest expected

According to political pundits, a neck-and-neck contest is expected between PTI’s Naureen Nishat Daha and PML-N’s Rana Mohammad Saleem with Daha’s wife likely to emerge victorious due to sympathy votes and also because she is the candidate of the ruling party.

Many political analysts who belong to Khanewal, and know this constituency well, also see PPP’s Mir Wasiq as a dark horse in the race due to his candid speaking, clean credentials and down-to-earth demeanour.

Political insiders from this constituency believe that Naureen Nishat is leading the charts in this constituency at the moment; she belongs to a political family and her brother Malik Ahmed Hussain Daher is PTI’s MNA from NA-154 Multan. Reportedly, she is also telling the people of the constituency to vote for her if they want the development of the area as development funds will only be released to the candidates belonging to treasury benches.

Analysts have also not ruled out PML-N’s Saleem as it is the third time he is contesting from this constituency and he also enjoys good support of different groups of this constituency. Likewise, the political analysts also said that PPP’s Mir Wasiq is a new entrant in mainstream politics but he has the potential to surprise everyone with a win as his family is seen among “a family of martyrs” by the people of Khanewal.

Read more: PML-N announces Rana Saleem as candidate for PP-206 by-poll

His father and elder brother were martyred by a banned militant outfit and he remained loyal to his party through thick and thin.

Yet the majority of political insiders from the constituency were of the opinion that it will be a tough contest between the PTI and PML-N. But after a good performance of PPP in NA-133 by-polls in Lahore where they have managed to secure 32,313 votes as compared to 5,585 votes in 2018 general elections, upsets are possible.

The sharp rise in the number of votes for PPP in NA-133 has made analysts wonder what will be the performance of PPP in PP-206 Khanewal. This is important because in NA-133 Lahore there was neither PTI nor TLP but in PP-206, these two parties are both present.

Syed Amir Hussaini, a local journalist, speaking about electoral politics of South Punjab, particularly Khanewal, said that NA-133 Lahore covers most of the areas having PPP’s Bhutto history. “However, PP-206 Khanewal constituency has been playing an anti-Bhutto role in terms of its electoral history especially in the five union councils of Khanewal city. The remnants of Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) are still largely at play and strong as ever.”

ECP issues notices

On Dec 8, District Election Commissioner/District Monitoring Officer PP-206 Khanewal Syed Tayyab Zawar Bukhari issued notices to former prime minister and Leader of the Opposition in Senate Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani for participating in the election campaign of PPP’s candidate Mir Wasiq, as well as Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari, the former federal minister and member of the provincial assembly for participating in the campaign of PML-N’s candidate Rana Mohammad Saleem.

Moreover, Punjab Minister for Agriculture Hussain Jahania Gardezi, MPA Hamid Yar Hiraj, MPA Faisal Akram Khan Niazi and chairman Municipal Committee Khanewal Masood Majeed Khan Daha were asked to submit written replies within two days for participating in the election campaign of PTI’s candidate which is against para 17 of the relevant rules.

Electoral history of PP-206

According to the election results of 1970 and 1977, the main reason for the PPP’s victory from this constituency was due to the support from rural polling booths more than urban polling booths. They also got a heavy mandate from urban slums.

Hussaini added that this constituency was PP-177 in 1988, 1990, 1993 and 1997 and PPP candidates failed in these four elections. Haji Irfan of Daha family was the candidate of Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI)/PML-N from 1988 to 1997. He got 30,000 votes in 1988 while PPP candidate Razzaq Khan got 23,329 votes.

He recalled that the IJI had 35,000 votes in 1990 and the PPP had contested this election in alliance with the PDA and managed to secure 23,844 votes. This actually meant that they had managed to get 500 more votes as compared to 1988 after the electoral alliance of two parties.

In 1993, there was now PML-N and PPP was allied with the Junejo League.

The National Assembly candidate joined the PPP from the Junejo League and Mian Musab, a young man from the Kagha group who joined the Muslim League-Functional in the provincial assembly, became the PPP candidate. Irfan Daha was PML-N’s candidate.

Razzaq Khan did not get a ticket and he contested the elections as an independent candidate due to which PPP voters were also divided — Irfan Daha /PML-N got 26,000 votes, Masab Haider of PPP got 19,000 votes and Razzaq Khan Niazi got 10,000 votes.

Hussaini recalled that in this election, Nishat Daha revolted from the PML-N (Daha group) and contested the election as an independent candidate and he too got 7,000 votes. So, in 1993 PPP lost 10,000 votes in the shape of Razzaq and PML-N had to face the setback of 7,000 votes which were secured by Nishat Daha.

In the 1997 election, Haji Irfan Daha of PML-N won with 34,000 votes, while Nishat Daha secured 15,500 votes for PPP.

At the time of 1988, 1990 and 1993 elections, the PPP was present in Khanewal up to the ward unit in organisational terms and the working class was predominant in its city and tehsil organisation. However, as soon as Sardar Allahyar Hiraj joined the PPP from the Junejo League in 1993 and was brought into PPP ranks, the foundations of the entire PPP organisation began to shake.

Allahyar Hiraj and Nishat Khan made the PPP’s local body and vote-wielding activists personally loyal to the party and acquitted them. When Hiraj and Nishat left the party in the 2002 elections, most of the office bearers, local body councillors also left the party and these people were the identity of PPP.

The PPP’s graph came down so much in electoral politics in 2002 that it got only 2,600 votes in the 2006 by-elections but the fact was that in this election a large part of PPP workers and office bearers and voters were with Nishat Khan Daha.

In 2008, the PPP gave a party ticket to Nishat Khan Daha, although if the party had brought a worker to this seat, it would have got a lot of votes this time under certain circumstances and even if he had not won, this impression about the PPP would have disappeared. Maybe his vote is not in this constituency.

In 2013, the PPP left this constituency vacant and its workers and voters were divided. One faction voted for Rana Saleem of PML-Q while one faction did not vote for Nishat Khan Daha.

According to political insiders, it was decided to leave this constituency vacant in 2018 as per the policy formulated by former prime minister Gilani. Meanwhile, the district organisation has also opposed giving ticket to Mir Wasiq Haider Tirmizi, who had expressed his desire to contest the elections on behalf of the PPP and was given the party ticket at the last moment.

And even at the time of issuance of a party ticket, Mr Gilani had reportedly said that you will be hardly able to get 1,500 to 2,500 votes from this constituency. However, Mir Wasiq managed to secure 6,617 votes and when he was contesting this election, he had neither district organisation, tehsil nor city organisation with him and barely 20 to 30 diehard jiyalas were active for his campaign.

After Nishat Daha’s death, most of the local PPP organisational officials were in favour of leaving the seat vacant and the South Punjab leadership seemed to agree. Mir Wasiq’s nephew was scheduled to get married on Dec 12 and he was also displeased with the attitude of a number of local and South Punjab party officials.

He apologised for the election but in the final session it was former president Asif Ali Zardari who showed resolve and asked Mir Wasiq to contest the elections from PP-206.

Major issues of the constituency

PP-206 Khanewal consists of 12 union councils out of which eight union councils have no water supply. Most neighbourhoods, settlements and colonies reportedly have neither government sewerage systems nor filtration plants. The scarcity of clean drinking water can be gauged by the fact that local companies sell potable water in the area and then national and international companies supply water to most households and shops in the area. However, the clean water of most local and national water companies is not up to the standards.

According to one of the voters of the constituency, the area does not currently have any data on the number of jaundice patients in this area and the exact number of kidney patients, but the District Headquarters Hospital where the dialysis machine is located has 12 beds for this purpose. The hospital has hundreds of thousands of registered patients.

He added that the second facility is at Nishat Noreen Hospital where a minimum of Rs6,000 is required for dialysis. “The failure to provide clean drinking water shows that the priority of the successful PML-N and PTI billionaire candidates from this constituency in the past is clearly not to provide healthcare to the poor masses, remarked a local voter.

Another voter belonging to this constituency, Ghulam Rasool, told Bol News that Union Council No 3, in which the most populous areas are located including Civil Lines, then Peoples Colony, and Gulberg people have been deprived of clean drinking and better sewerage system.

“Unemployment is rampant in these areas.” The most developed area in UC 3 is where the DC House and DPO House are located and where the sessions judges, judicial and administrative bureaucracy live, he added.

“Municipal committee staff, public health engineering and works, local government, buildings and highways spend most of their funds for the development of the same bureaucratic offices and residential areas where the elite class lives,” a political insider claimed.