• The world’s population has reached eight billion.
• It has happened 11 years after reaching seven billion.
• The UN doesn’t expect 10 billion to be reached until 2080.

The world’s population has reached eight billion, 11 years after reaching seven billion.

After a large spike in the middle of the 20th Century, population growth is already slowing down.

The UN doesn’t expect 10 billion to be reached until 2080.

The UN’s population estimates could be off by a year or two.

Its best estimate is 15 November for reaching 8 billion.

What can the stories of the UN’s five, six, and seven-billionth newborns tell us about population growth?

Matej Gaspar was born in July 1987 to a flashing camera and a gaggle of politicians.

Alex Marshall, a British UN officer, felt partly responsible for the mayhem he caused at a Zagreb maternity unit.

“We essentially looked at the estimates and dreamed up this idea that the world population will reach five billion in 1987,” he adds. “And the statistical date was 11 July.” They chose to christen the world’s five-billionth infant.

UN demographers were upset when he tried to clear the notion.

“They told us we were idiots. We shouldn’t single out just one person.”

Nonetheless, they did it. “I wanted to humanize the numbers,” he explains. “We found out where the secretary general was going to be that day and everything progressed from there.”

The world’s five-billionth baby is 35 and attempting to forget his birth. His Facebook page says he’s in Zagreb, married, and a chemical engineer. He avoids interviews and denied BBC’s request.

Alex remarks, recalling Matej’s first day, “I don’t blame him.”

Since then, we’ve gained 3 billion people. In the next 35 years, world population may grow by only 2 billion, then plateau.

Sadia Sultana Oishee peels potatoes for dinner outside Dhaka, Bangladesh. Her parents are strict, so she’d rather be outside playing football.

Pandemic destroyed the family’s business selling fabric and saris. They can afford school tuition for their three girls since village life is cheaper.

Oishee is the family’s luckiest member. She was the seven-billionth baby born in 2011.

Her mother had no idea. She hadn’t planned to deliver that day. After a doctor’s visit, she had an emergency Caesarean.

TV crews and local officials crowded around Oishee when she arrived at midnight. The family was thrilled.

Her father wanted a son, but he’s satisfied with his three hard-working girls. Oishee’s eldest is in college and he wants to be a doctor. “We’re not rich, and Covid made matters worse,” he says. “I’ll make her fantasy come true.”

Bangladesh’s population has grown by 17 million since Oishee’s birth.

This is a medical success story, but Bangladesh’s growth has halted. In 1980, the average woman had six children; now she has fewer than two. Because the country prioritises education. As women grow more educated they choose to have smaller families.

This is vital for determining where the world’s population is going to go. The UN, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, and the IIASA-Wittgenstein Centre in Vienna vary on expected education gains.

The UN thinks the global population will peak in the 2080s at 10.4 billion but the IHME and Wittgenstein believe it will happen sooner – between 2060 and 2070, at fewer than 10 billion.

But they are only projections. Since Oishee was born in 2011 a lot has changed in the globe, and demographers are continuously shocked.

“We didn’t expect Aids mortality to drop so low and therapy to save so many lives,” says IIASA demographer Samir KC. An improvement in child mortality has a long-term impact, as surviving children have children.

Fertility has plummeted.

Samir KC says demographers were astonished when South Korea’s birthrate dipped to 0.81. “What’s the bottom? We’re asking this.”

More countries will face it.

In most countries, the fertility rate will be below 2.1 children per woman, the number needed to sustain a population.

Adnan Mevic, 23, lives in Bosnia-Herzegovina, which has one of the world’s fastest-declining populations.

“Nobody will pay for retirees’ pensions,” he claims. “Everyone will be gone.”

He possesses an economics master’s and is jobless. If not, he’ll relocate to the EU. His country has low fertility and considerable emigration, like much of Eastern Europe.

Fatima, Adnan’s mother, has bizarre memories of his birth.

Doctors and nurses were gathered, but Fatima couldn’t tell what was happening. When Adnan arrived, the then UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was there to christen him the world’s six-billionth newborn. Fatima laughs as she remembers being so fatigued.

Adnan and his parents flip through photo albums. In one, a small boy sits before a big cake surrounded by men in suits and khakis. Adnan was visited by politicians while other youngsters had birthday celebrations.

Perks existed. At 11, Cristiano Ronaldo invited the six-billionth newborn to meet him at Real Madrid.

He’s amazed that the world’s population doubled in 23 years.

“Wow,” he exclaims. I’m worried about our planet’s future.

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