• A missile fired from North Korea was going over Japan. It failed mid-flight and splashed down in the Sea of Japan.
• Analysts believe this is a precursor to something more significant, such as a nuclear test or a full launch of a long-range ballistic missile.
• North Korea may have tested a ballistic missile that flew upwards of 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles).

For those who live in northern Japan, this morning has been perplexing and anxious. In Miyagi and Yamagata prefectures, air raid alarms went off around 7:50, and TV shows were cut off to warn viewers to seek cover.

A missile fired from North Korea, according to the Japanese coast guard, was going over Japan. Although a North Korean missile crossed Japan last month, none had ever gone this far south.

However, the missile fired this morning never entered Japanese airspace. It failed mid-flight and crashed down to earth, splashing down in the Sea of Japan, according to South Korean military sources.

So everybody, please take a deep breath and resume drinking your morning coffee. Okay, no.

First off, it’s not normal behavior to launch ballistic missiles at your neighbors without giving them any advance notice and leaving them to estimate where the missile will land. It goes completely against accepted international behavior rules and is exceedingly offensive and harmful. It poses a threat to maritime lanes and aero planes. Debris from the missiles’ breakdown could fall on people below.

Second, this comes a day after North Korea fired a record number of missiles into the waters off the coast of South Korea.

The US midterm elections are just a few days away, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will be hoping that showcasing his military prowess will concentrate minds in the US capital.

What is Pyongyang doing, then?

North Korea is purposefully escalating hostilities with its neighbors. Analysts believe that this is a precursor to something more significant, such as a nuclear test, a full launch of a long-range ballistic missile in the Pacific, or both.

All this commotion has a political purpose. Pyongyang employed the same method in 2010 and again in 2017. Then demand dialogue and concessions from South Korea, Japan, and the United States after raising tensions to a terrifying level. Pyongyang is probably currently continuing to do the same thing.

However, Mr. Kim has another goal in mind. The North has a long way to go before their missile technology is perfect.

The warhead splits from the missile after it is fired into orbit and travels on a “re-entry vehicle” back to Earth. This needs to be able to endure the intense pressure and heat produced as it pierces the atmosphere.

It appears that North Korea’s re-entry vehicles had failed prior testing. Therefore, Pyongyang must continue testing to advance its technology.

The test on Thursday seemed to follow what is known as a “lofted trajectory,” travelling upwards of 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) before descending sharply. Without flying the missile over Japan, it’s possible that this was done to test a long-range missile. If today’s test was unsuccessful, it just serves to highlight how far Pyongyang still needs to go.

However, the ultimate goal is not merely to put Japan and South Korea in danger. North Korea is already capable of doing so.

It is to threaten the US with an intercontinental ballistic missile that is nuclear-capable (ICBM). The test today will undoubtedly have jolted people who heard the sirens sound.

If North Korea wants to intimidate Japan, however, it is having the exact opposite effect. The latest threats from China against Taiwan and Pyongyang’s missile testing are both significantly affecting Japanese politics. Japan’s right has long demanded that the nation’s post-war pacifist constitution be repealed and that it re-arm.

Most everyday Japanese have previously responded negatively.

However, that is beginning to change, and the security hawks now have every reason to move forward. The administration will suggest tripling the defense budget over the following ten years and buying long-range strike weapons next month.

According to reports, Japan and the US are negotiating the sale of hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles. As a result, Japan would be able to launch attacks against targets located far within China and North Korea for the first time since World War II.

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