• Polls suggest that Netanyahu’s party will fall one seat short of a majority.
• Prime Minister Yair Lapid want to stay in power.
• Several center-right refuse to collaborate with him.

On Tuesday, Israelis will vote for the fifth time in four years to end the political impasse.

Netanyahu is not running for the first time in 13 years. Bibi, as he is known in Israel, wants to lead a hard-right government, while moderate caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid want to stay in power.

If the final polls are accurate, this round of voting won’t break the logjam any better than the prior four. Those surveys predict Netanyahu’s bloc will fall one seat short of a majority in parliament.

As his corruption trial proceeds, Netanyahu and the likelihood of a Netanyahu administration are key concerns, as in the past four elections. In August, a quarter of respondents to an Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) poll stated the party leader was the second most significant reason in their vote.

However, several center-right leaders who agree with him personally or politically refuse to collaborate with him. Netanyahu, leader of the center-right Likud party, may need radical right-wing groups to form a government and offer its leaders ministerial roles to make a comeback.

After rising power and grocery expenses this year, Israelis are concerned about cost of living. In the same IDI study, 44% prioritized a party’s economic plan’s cost-of-living reduction.

The deadliest year for conflict-related deaths for Israelis and Palestinians since 2015, 2022, is on voters’ minds.

Haaretz’s collection of polls reveals that Netanyahu’s party is expected to fall just short of or just reach the 61 seats needed to create a majority government, while Lapid’s bloc falls short by four to five seats.

According to pollsters Joshua Hantman and Simon Davies, Netanyahu’s coalition passed the 61-seat mark in six polls and fell short in nine. On Friday, the three major Israeli news stations’ final three surveys showed his bloc with 60 Knesset seats.

Netanyahu has been campaigning in Likud strongholds to win a few more seats. Party officials said hundreds of thousands of Netanyahu supporters didn’t vote.

Arab turnout also matters. IDI estimates that 17% of Israelis are Arab and have national voting rights. Their turnout could make or break Netanyahu. The United Arab List has cautioned that if Arab turnout falls below 48%, several Arab parties may not meet the 3.25% vote barrier needed to win seats in parliament.

That candidate has 42 days to gather enough parties to form a majority government in the 120-seat Knesset, Israel’s parliament. The President can change the candidate if they fail. If that individual fails within 28 days, parliament has 21 days to pick a candidate before new elections are called. Lapid would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

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