• Xi Jinping has the chance to chart a new course for managing COVID-19.
• It will be less disruptive to the economy and daily life.
• Businesses and investors are eagerly awaiting any indications of a shift away from the harsh “dynamic zero-COVID” approach.

Businesses and investors are eagerly monitoring any indications of a shift away from Beijing’s harsh “dynamic zero-COVID” approach as China gets ready for its once every five years leadership conference.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has the chance to chart a new course for managing COVID-19 that will be less disruptive to the economy and daily life at the CCP Congress, which starts on Sunday.

There aren’t many signs, at least thus far, that Xi, who is anticipated to win a historic third term at Congress, securing his position as a potential leader for life, will accept it.

Beijing appears to be no closer to establishing a route to normality than it was at the beginning of the pandemic, despite almost three years of the world’s strictest pandemic regulations.

While state-run media has warned of catastrophic consequences should “zero-COVID” be abandoned, localities around the country have intensified draconian control efforts in the lead-up to the Congress despite rising economic harm and public annoyance.

Authorities in the northern Shanxi province’s Fenyang city declared a lockdown on Monday after finding a single preliminary positive case. About 22 million people were prevented from leaving western Xinjiang last week due to an increase in cases, and Shanghai’s financial district has been closed off to prevent a minor uptick in infections.

As the number of cases nationally rose to about 1,900 on Sunday, the largest daily total in more than two months, there were fears that there may be more widespread lockdowns before the politically sensitive conference.

Although China has officially reported significantly fewer cases and deaths than other nations, its zero-tolerance rules have seriously harmed the economy and countless people’s means of subsistence.

The second-largest economy in the world, which is dealing with a number of issues such as slowing global growth, a US-led crackdown on its tech sector, a flight of foreign investment, and a deflating property bubble, is predicted by the World Bank to grow just 2.8 percent in 2022, as opposed to the Asia-Pacific average of 5.3 percent.

According to Josh Gardner, CEO, and co-founder of Kung Fu Data, which offers business advice on accessing the Chinese market, many companies are reducing or reevaluating their operations in China as a result of the uncertainty around things getting back to normal.

But in either case, there would almost probably be at least tens of thousands of fatalities due to the widespread infection of 1.4 billion people.

China’s population could likely be impacted harder by the initial wave of COVID-19 than other nations because of its lack of exposure to the virus, which ironically makes its population more susceptible to serious illness than elsewhere, and its poor healthcare infrastructure.

Beijing, which has cited its handling of the pandemic as proof of the supremacy of China’s carefully regulated political system, may find it difficult to accept such a result.

According to Qinduo Xu, a senior fellow at the Pangoal Institution in Beijing, “China must be substantially sure of an outcome which avoids a big number of deaths or serious illnesses” before abandoning the zero-Covid policy.

According to some observers, Beijing won’t even think about reopening until COVID-19 becomes significantly less deadly, whenever that may be due to a mix of improved vaccinations, therapies, and the coronavirus’ natural evolution.

Beijing won’t likely loosen its pandemic approach until it is “very confident” that doing so won’t result in hundreds of thousands of deaths, according to Taylor Loeb, an economics and trade expert at Trivium China.

According to Loeb, who spoke to Al Jazeera, “They’re willing to endure a pretty large degree of economic harm since the alternative – the attendant economic and social damage from widespread diseases and overcrowded hospitals – is seen to be far worse.”

“‘Zero-COVID’ continuing for years appears doubtful, but that depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine, available treatments, and the overall trajectory of the virus globally. For the foreseeable future, there will undoubtedly be some kind of restrictions in place, particularly with regard to overseas travel.

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