BERLIN – Germans went to the polls in Germany’s most populous state on Sunday, posing an early test for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats five months after he began office with a domestic policy focus that was soon overshadowed by the Ukraine conflict.

For the past half-century, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) have dominated North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), home to more than a fifth of Germany’s population and the rust-belt Ruhr region.

However, the party lost to former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives (CDU) in its worst state election in 2017, under fire for failing to address traffic congestion and growing crime rates. It also suffered a record defeat at the federal level a few months later.

“North Rhine-Westphalia always sends an important signal for federal politics,” said Nico Siegel, the executive director of pollster Infratest dimap.

Prior to Sunday’s election, the two parties were polling quite closely, with the CDU holding a little lead at 32 percent vs 28 percent for the SPD in an INSA poll released on Thursday.

“An election victory would radiate, in a positive sense, into discussions about the SPD’s strength in the federal government and Olaf Scholz’s popularity,” Siegel said

The NRW election is also expected to strengthen Germany’s ecological Greens party, which might become the kingmaker.

Since 2017, the CDU has controlled the state in a coalition with the business-friendly FDP. Even with a modest advantage over the SPD, it may not be able to gain a majority with only the FDP, which is polling at 8%.

The Greens recently polled at 16 percent, implying that either party will require the Greens to form a state government.

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