What might we anticipate now that the attack has begun, and why has Russian President Vladimir Putin refocused his military’s energies on this region?

KYIV, UKRAINE — ON THE WAY TO KYIV, UKRAINE — Following Moscow’s rapid retreat from around Kyiv, Ukraine and its western allies have been waiting weeks for Russia’s anticipated onslaught in the Donbas – an eastern area of the nation bordering Russia.

That offensive has started now.

Many predict this Russian attack to be more armed and coordinated than the unsuccessful first phase of the war, with soldiers concentrating for a massive land assault, bombers bombing towns, and Ukraine’s military bracing for what might be a series of crucial clashes.

So, why has Russian President Vladimir Putin refocused his military’s efforts on eastern Ukraine, and what might we anticipate in the next days / weeks?

Simply put, the region is strategically important both geographically and ideologically, and advances there might give the Kremlin with some sort of success despite struggling to meet its early goals in the conflict. Russia views the territory as significant and “historically Russian, ‘given’ to Ukraine during the Soviet era,” according to Valeriy Akimenko, a senior research associate at Conflict Studies Research Centre.

“It’s also part of the ‘Russian World’ notion that Moscow is attempting to establish,” he continued.

The region, which is about twice the size of Belgium, is an economic powerhouse with significant coal and metal reserves, processing hubs, and strategically vital ports on the Sea of Azov, which connects Russia, Crimea, and Ukraine.

Since Russia’s unlawful annexation of Crimea in 2014, rebels supported by Moscow have fought Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas. Until Russia attacked its neighbour about two months ago, the battle lasted eight years and killed an estimated 14,000 people, according to the United Nations.

Putin made the decision after the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic,” two breakaway areas in eastern Ukraine, declared their independence. They are called after the two major regions that make up the Donbass.

“Technically, the Russian ‘action’ aims to ‘protect Donbas,’ which is one of the Kremlin’s narratives,” Akimenko stated. “As a result, the acquisition of Donbas would allow Russia to claim victory and declare ‘winning,’ as temporary as that may be given Russia’s clearly bigger goals.”

With a wide military campaign, Putin seems intent on deposing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s western-leaning administration and reasserting the Kremlin’s dominance over its neighbour.

With the number of victims rising and western sanctions wreaking havoc on his economy, the so-called “liberation” of Donbas might be tempting — especially if it happens before Russia’s traditional Victory Day on May 9.

While all attention have been on Kyiv, Ukrainian military have been defending eastern Ukraine for years.

It’s a region where, over the last eight weeks, some of the bloodiest battles have taken place, from towns near Kharkiv in the north to Mariupol in the south, where Ukrainian forces are desperately fighting to keep a foothold in the key port city under siege.