The study shows that the Omicron variant could cause a new wave of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations across Britain exceeding last winter’s peak levels without new restrictions

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said the results suggest the Omicron variant “will lead to a substantial increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission” in Britain, which without further control measures has the potential to produce “substantially higher case rates than those recorded during the Alpha … winter wave in 2020-2021.”

They also said, “to Omicron’s apparent high transmissibility and ability to infect individuals with existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from prior infection or from vaccination.”

Read more: UK raises Covid alert level due to Omicron surge

The researchers created four scenarios for scenarios regarding the potential transmissibility, immune evasion, and vaccination efficiency, each of which predicted a spike in infections starting later this month and eventually surpassing the high numbers seen during the January 2021 wave.

The calculations are based on the assumption that no additional controls are implemented beyond the presently mandated mask-wearing in stores and public transit, as well as the government’s new “Plan B” mitigation measures, which are to take effect Sunday

According to the analysis, the most hopeful scenario in which Omicron demonstrates modest immune evasion and vaccine boosters prove effective would result in 175,000 hospitalizations and 24,700 fatalities between December 1 and April 30.

In the worst-case scenario, low booster effectiveness resulted in 492,000 hospitalizations and 74,800 fatalities in the UK over the same time period.

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