No one benefits from polarization

The grammar of Pakistani politics has changed ever since the advent of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI’s) rise to power in 2018.

The degradation of Pakistani politics is evident from the absence of civilized media discourse, almost unbridgeable and deepening political polarization between the ruling party and the opposition that has culminated in the tabling of the “no confidence move” against Prime Minister Imran Khan by the opposition on March 6.

Instead of following the established political norm of defeating the “no confidence move” through laid down constitutional procedures, PTI is threatening to use the Pakistani street to remain in power. Not to be outdone, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an unholy alliance of all the political parties opposed to PTI are determined to oust PTI by joining hands with the forward blocks of dissident members of PTI led by Jehangir Tareen and Aleem Khan.

The PDM seems confident that it has the requisite number of 172 votes needed to let the motion pass in the Pakistan parliament and unseat Imran Khan as Prime Minister. To thwart this very real possibility, Imran Khan has tried every trick in the political book including holding of public rallies to name and shame the dissident members of PTI as “quisling.”

In his public rallies, the Prime Minister has not only used abusive language against the PDM leadership, but has called them “corrupt”, “thieves” and “dacoits”. He has also ridiculed PDA leadership as a “bunch of rats” that is conspiring to “hunt” him out from power at the behest of foreign agents.

The PDM leadership has strongly refuted these allegations and has stated that faced with the prospect of the downfall of his government through their “no confidence move”, Imran Khan has gone in a state of “delirium”. These sharp exchanges are a serious case for Pakistanis.

In the latest constitutional twist, the PTI government has decided to approach the Supreme Court for interpreting article 63 (a) of the Constitution that states that in case of no confidence move against the PM, the speaker has to act within 14 days. That date expired on 21st March and the Speaker has failed to perform his constitutional obligation. The PTI has used the holding of the CFM in Islamabad on 22-23 March as a reason to call the session of the Parliament on March 25 rather than on March 21. Whatever the outcome of the Supreme Court verdict, one thing is quite clear that Pakistani politics is going to turn ugly, nasty and turbulent.

There are basically three scenarios. One, a collision course; two, return to normalcy and peaceful coexistence; and three, violent fragmentation. If the present trend persists and the PTI government continues to remain in denial of the fact that it no longer commands the support of the majority of the MNAs and is unwilling to give up power, then there is a strong risk that the country would be pushed towards violent anarchy and the army per force would step in to maintain law and order.

The dire state of Pakistan’s economy, especially during Ramadan, would be a crucial factor in determining people’s level of tolerance for violence. To avoid this unpleasant scenario, there is a huge responsibility on the political parties, especially the mainstream political parties like PPP, PML and the ruling political parties, PTI to act with restraint and pursue their respective agenda within the norm of constitution and law. These considerations should weigh heavily on the minds of the entire political class as they struggle for power. Democracies work only when there is space left open for dialogue and compromise. When that space is closed then people turn to violence.

While it may seem impossible to contemplate under the existing atmosphere of deep polarization and antagonism, the second scenario will mean that there are reasons to believe all political contenders would benefit from return to normalcy, decency and rule of law. Pakistan has faced turbulence for too long and even today the threat of terrorism with transnational linkage remains quite potent as evidenced by latest wave of violence.

In the face of these challenges, it is imperative that all political parties should play their integrative role and avoid fanning the centrifugal forces. Instead of pushing the Pakistan youth towards political conflict as is being done by PTI and JUF, both parties should try to cultivate a culture of restraint, tolerance and dialogue. Incidents like the attack on Sindh House in Islamabad should not be allowed to recur.

The third scenario of violent fragmentation – which is also known as “Balkanization” – requires paying close attention to centrifugal and sub-regional forces that continue to operate in Pakistan. These forces thrive in an atmosphere of deepening political divide and lack of political consensus among key political forces.

Pakistan’s 1973 constitution offers a credible and legitimate vehicle for inter-provincial co-ordination through Council of Common Interests. It is imperative that the rights of provinces should be respected in letter and spirit and an effort should be made to create and sustain balance between Federation of Pakistan and its constituents. Maintaining this balance is crucial to the survival of Pakistan as a Federation. Let us hope that better sense will prevail in Pakistan and we will soon be returning to being a normal country.

The writer is a political scientist and defence analyst