Dealing with Pakistan’s TTP conundrum

Pakistan’s policy towards the banned outfit, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), operating out of Afghanistan, has fluctuated between talks and use of force to dissuade the armed group from pursuing its agenda of violent change in the border regions of Pakistan straddling Afghanistan.

Ever since its founding in 2007 by Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP has waged a relentless war of armed aggression against the Pakistani state and its people including the mass murder of children at Army Public School in Peshawar in 2014. Other mass terror attacks against civilians have included: the January 2016 Bacha Khan University attack in Charsadda, the February 2016 targeting of a Shi`a mosque in Peshawar, the December 2017 Agricultural Training Institute attack, and a July 2018 attack targeting an election campaign gathering in Peshawar.

As it has evolved into a full-fledged armed outfit with thousands of its foot soldiers armed with most modern weapons that operate out of Afghanistan as their main sanctuaries, TTP has begun to pose a mortal security threat to the Pakistani state.

Islamabad has relied mainly on kinetic operations to deal with this threat. It has launched several military operations to eliminate TTP as a terrorist outfit. Along with these, it has urged the Taliban who control the neighbouring Afghanistan to pressure TTP not to carry out attacks against Pakistan using Afghanistan’s soil.

There has been a galore of statements from the Afghan Taliban that it would do its utmost to discourage TTP from engaging in cross-border attacks on Pakistan’s security forces. But the fact remains that TTP and its leadership remains committed to its violent anti-Pakistan agenda. One reason for TTP’s obduracy and disregard of its assurances held out to the Pakistani state is that it is being tacitly encouraged by the Afghan Taliban not to lay down its arms unless some of its demands are met by Islamabad. These demands include: release by Pakistan of TTP prisoners; cessation of air operations by Pakistan Air Force on TTP hide-outs; free movement of TTP militants around and across Pakistan-Afghanistan border; de-merger of FATA into KPK; complete implementation of Sharia in the Malakand area. Islamabad has already met some of these demands: Pakistan has released over 100 TTP prisoners and used its air operations, provided there is reduction in TTP cross-border attacks against Pakistani forces. With regard to the key TTP demand relating to the de-merger of FATA with KPK, Islamabad has not acceded to this because it is a red line for Pakistan as it relates to the territorial integrity of the country.

TTP has refused to back down from this demand and the impasse persists. A recent statement by the Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani clearly stated that “he not only acknowledged the ‘sacrifices’ made by the TTP for the Afghan Taliban, but also insisted that they would not pressurize the TTP in the ongoing talks between the group and the Pakistani government.”

He categorically said that any solution should be based on mutual understanding and the principle of give and take. In the latest attempt to break the logjam with TTP, Pakistan sent a large jirga to Kabul on June 1, consisting of tribal elders, religious scholars and local influential to broker a deal with the TTP.

After two days of talks, the Pakistani jirga returned to Pakistan with the vague promise by TTP that it would extend its cease agreement with the Pakistani state. The jirga was invited to Kabul by Afghan Taliban leadership to broker a peace deal with the TTP.

It must be noted that TTP, in the immediate past, has used these negotiations to buy time, reorganize itself and launch attacks against the Pakistani state. According to Combating Terrorism Centre (CTC) assessment, the TTP after getting new targeting guidelines from its new leadership has chosen to direct its attacks against the Pakistan army. For example, in 2020 alone, an average of 73% percent (110 attacks and 179 killings) were targeted against the Pakistan army. Other targets included the police, civilians and the security forces. Attacks on the Pakistan Army have continued unabated despite the so-called “truce” announced by TTP recently.

It is obvious that a resurgent TTP inside Afghanistan, which has the backing of the Taliban especially of the Haqqani group, bodes ill for peace in the region. Instead of dealing with the TTP with velvet gloves, Pakistan needs to deal with this emerging threat with an iron fist to send a clear message to the TTP leadership and its Afghan backers that Pakistan’s security is paramount and Islamabad would pay any price to achieve it.

TTP needs to understand that Pakistan’s diplomatic options cannot be taken as a sign of weakness. Hot pursuit including the use of air power as options should clearly be put on the negotiating table. TTP has played the farce of negotiations since 2014 all too well and Islamabad needs to call them out soon. Pakistan’s biggest achievement during the past two decades has been the decimation of terrorist outfits from its soil, and hence the resurgent TTP should not be allowed to come back in any form unless it surrenders to the writ of the Pakistani state.

The writer is a political scientist and defence analyst