Paradigm shift in Pakistani politics

True to his promise that he would not let the corrupt opposition return to power, Imran Khan committed the most flagrant breach of the constitution of Pakistan by using Article 5 of the Constitution as a cover to dismiss the no-confidence move by the opposition.

Within fifteen minutes of the start of the proceedings of the special Parliamentary session called to decide the fate of the Prime Minister, Deputy speaker Qasim Suri denied the validity of the no-confidence move claiming that it was part of the “international conspiracy” to oust Imran Khan.

Stunned by this extraordinary “filibuster”, the opposition approached the Supreme Court of Pakistan to decide on the constitutionality and legality of the action.

In a well-choreographed series of moves, the PM advised the President to dissolve the Parliament who obliged and announced fresh elections. He also asked the Prime Minister to stay as caretaker Prime Minister till his successor was chosen.

One primary reason why the PTI government seems to be in such a hurry to go for fresh elections is to present the Supreme Court with a fait accompli and deny it sufficient time to decide on the illegality of the question of the demise of the Parliament.

The legal fraternity agrees that by denying a vote on the no-confidence move on April 3, the Deputy Speaker acted illegally and committed a clear breach of the constitution.

The PTI strategy is to argue before the Supreme Court that the proceedings of the Parliament are beyond the purview of the Court and the speaker’s actions are protected under Article 69 of the Constitution.

This is a gross misreading of the so-called autonomy of the action and there is near consensus among all constitutional experts that what happened was a clear violation of the constitution and therefore a cognizable offence.

The decision of the special bench of the Supreme Court that is hearing this case will have a crucial bearing on the shape of the Pakistani politics.

At the heart of the ongoing controversy regarding the legality and applicability of the Article 5 as a reason for overriding the prescribed constitutional procedures for dealing with matter of no-confidence, is the flawed assumption by the government that since the opposition had tabled a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister at the behest of a foreign power, namely, the U.S., it had proven itself to be disloyal to the country.

The only proof that the government has furnished in support of this dubious assertion is the so called “threat letter” brandished by Imran Khan in his public rally in Islamabad.

After talking to several sources, one can say the following about this “threat letter”:

a) The letter was actually a Cable sent by Ambassador of Pakistan to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad on March 7.

b) This Cable was based on the Ambassador’s “impressions” of what he was told by Mr. Donald Lu, the senior American official.

c) Some “strong language” was used by the American official to express Washington’s concerns relating to the general drift of Imran Khan’s foreign policy particularly his recent visit to Moscow.

Beyond these “contents”, it is difficult to say that this Cable contained any specific threats to the government or warnings of dire consequences if it did not alter its foreign policy course.

It is manifestly clear that this Cable has got undeserved salience and were it not related to the internal dynamics of Pakistan’s political struggle between PTI and PDM, it would have remained buried in the archives of Pakistan like so many others.

At what point did the government thought it appropriate to use this Cable as a weapon to discredit the opposition? It is hard to establish a clear causal link, but it is worth recalling that as PTI began to face its internal difficulties and lost control of its rebellious MNAs like Noor Alam Khan, it began to pay serious attention to its allies like MQM and made serious efforts to keep them under check by preventing them from defecting to the ranks of the opposition.

As these MNAS gathered in the Sindh House along with others, Imran Khan took over the campaign to win back his dissident MNAs. This campaign had both stick and carrot element to it. The stick part related to threats, the invocation of defection clauses against them; the carrot part related to offerings of lucrative positions and promises of forgiveness etc. But none of this worked as too much bad blood had been created to be overcome by either use of blandishments or coercive tactics. (The attack on Sindh House led by two PTI MNAs’ was a clear example of the latter).

By late March, it had become clear to Imran Khan that he was woefully short of the magic number of 172 seats to keep himself in power as Prime Minister. At that point, he employed the successful tool of holding political rallies that culminated in the March 27 “12 million” gathering of PTI supporters.

But the trouble for PTI was how to counter act the opposition rallies by JUI, Muslim League and PPP who were marching toward Islamabad calling for Imran Khan’s removal from power under the common banner of “Mehangai Mokao March.”

The March 27 gathering in Islamabad was a turning point. At this rally, Imran Khan “brandished” the so-called “threat letter” as part of his big “surprise” and disclosed to the cheering crowd that his government was under threat from foreign governments because of his “independent” foreign” policy.

Much to the surprise of PTI, the united opposition went ahead and requisitioned a special session of the Parliament for a no-confidence move for Imran Khan’s ouster. Faced with the humiliating prospects of the certain defeat – the opposition had 197 votes in a house of 342 while it needed only 172 to have the motion succeed, PTI, decided to invoke Article 5 as an escape mechanism for its survival. But this turned out to be a Pyrrhic victory for them.

The writer is a political scientist and defence analyst