The plot thickens! With every passing day, the number game for the no confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan gets more suspenseful and unpredictable.

It seems that the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), who have been government’s allies since the past three and a half years, have almost decided to break away after seeing the wind blowing in the Opposition’s favour.

It may be mentioned here that BAP was formed only a few months before the 2018 general elections, after the electable elites were driven to join one group. At first they were inclined to join the PPP, but later decided to form their own party to counter the nationalist forces in Balochistan.

Led by former Chief Minister Jam Kamal Khan, BAP bagged five members of National Assembly, 13 members in the Senate and 16 in the Provincial Assembly. However, the number of MPAs rose to 24 after some independents joined in and after BAP was allotted reserved women and minority seats. The party joined PTI-led ruling coalition and one of its MNAs, Zubaida Jalal, was included in the cabinet. PTI promised BAP to induct another one of its members as a minister of state, but the party failed to reach a consensus in this regard due to sharp differences over the issue of nomination.

The party has since been complaining publicly of being ignored and taken for granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan.

The party insiders confided to this scribe that some of the MNAs are already in contact with the Opposition parties and agree to support the no-confidence move against Prime Minister Imran Khan once they are sure of the move’s success.

BAP President Jam Kamal has made it clear in his tweet message that his party is fully aware of the political situation in Islamabad and shall take future course of action after consultation within the party.

“We are major stake holders in Senate and have representation in National Assembly and KP and Balochistan,”said Jam Kamal. “Being the party president, I would expect that media and political parties would consider those statements as party policy which are authentic. Any individual statements or any move taken by any person or parliamentarian shall be considered his or her own and not party’s decision,” he clarified.

In reply to Jam Kamal’s tweet, senior minister Zahoor Buledi – who claims to be acting president of the party – tweeted that being the largest and ruling group in Balochistan and a major ally of PTI in the center, BAP should evolve strategy with consensus regarding the political development in Islamabad and Balochistan by keeping in view the people and Balochistan’s interests instead of personal ones.

Buledi, an arch-rival of Jam Kamal who has been at the loggerheads with Chief Minister Qudoos Bezenjo, has now started lobbying within the political circles and with the party MPAs for becoming the next CM of the province.

The party comprises electable members who tend to change their loyalties towards political parties that have bright chances of forming the government in the center as well as in Balochistan. They tend to shift their loyalties for materialistic gains like grabbing lucrative jobs, attaining powers to use public funds, and recruiting their favourites in government jobs.

The political observers are not much hopeful about the future of BAP because of divisions within the party and say whatever unity is visible in the party is because of vast opportunities for them to serve their interests without any restriction in the set up led by Qudoos Bezenjo.

Apparently, it appears difficult to bring individuals and different groups of BAP to one point of favouring the Opposition’s no-confidence move against Prime Minister Imran Khan. But practically it is very easy to drive them to a corner, either way. Five party MNAs including two women federal ministers – Zubaida Jalal and Runbina Irfan – are on the beck and call of Islamabad and will follow its instructions instead of their party leadership.

Apart from that, the party is divided in different groups, one is led by former Chief Minister Jam Kamal, another by Chairman Senate Sadiq Sunjrani and the third by Speaker Mir Jan Mohammad Jamali. Sunjrani wanted to hold party elections and get senator Kohda Babar elected as party president instead of Jam Kamal, but the election process for the new party head had to be postponed till further order on the intervention of Islamabad.

Sunjrani having his close relations with Prime Minister are likely to ask party MNAs to stay with PTI, but as the observers say, he would also move with the wind direction.

As for Jam Kamal, who was ousted by Chairman Sunjrani from the office of Chief Minister, wants to get his revenge by cornering him and by ousting Qudoos Bezenjo. The party insiders say that if change does take place in Islamabad, it will definitely have its repercussions in Balochistan. The next Chief Minister of Balochistan would be Jam Kamal or Jan Jamali or Sardar Salah Bhootani.

The Opposition parties, mainly Jamiat Ulema Islam Fazal (11 members) and Balochistan National Party (9 members) had fully supported Qudoos Bezenjo to become Chief Minister. Jam Kamal is in contact with JUI-F to have its support in the future set up in Balochistan while BNP is opposing any such move because of past bitter experiences.

But one thing is almost clear now, that if there is a change in the center in the wake of the Opposition’s no confidence move, then change is bound to happen at the top in all the three provinces except Sindh.